Russia’s relentless and vicious campaign in NW Syria, where millions of civilians and IDPs live and could be forced to flee en mass, continues. The leader of the force that dominates that area has a new speech. A new & dangerous chapter is looming.
Details in following tweets:
Details in following tweets:
Al-Jolani says the Syrian revolution has achieved many goals against the Syrian regime, including the fracturing of its army (rendered militias), decimated economy, and domestic & international isolation. (Net gains for the rebels.)
"Patience is about to be followed by victory. The former regime has gone forever; the revolution has won against it in several ways, dismantled its army, showed its security vulnerabilities, destroyed its economy, mobilized international public opinion against it & isolated it."
Jolani: "But today we're facing a pure Russian occupation. Russia is trying to regain its Soviet glory at the expense of the Syrian blood, using the most atrocious methods, killing and displacing innocents, destroying their hospitals & schools, burning farms & factories."
Jolani: "We're also facing an Iranian occupation, aiming to wipe out the Sunni people and to restore the glory of the Persian empire, through the claims of Shiism & sectarianism, and to replace this people with one that serves its expansionist desires."
... which are not limited to the land of the Levant, but also look at Yemen, the Arab Gulf, not to speak of East Asia and Africa." #Jolani
"Between the two [Russia & Iran], the regime is being used by the two sides as a puppet to take over territories and properties, through demographic change... To achieve their goals, the two have no qualms in committing the ugliest massacres against the Sunni people"
...., through airstrikes, bombardments and leveling to the ground, after they failed to pacify the revolution through political and security means."
Jolani: "Having said that, we are in front of a great battle, on behalf of the whole Islamic Ummah, and on behalf of a hypocrite world that once wanted to destroy the Soviet Union & to confront the Iranian ambitions."
Jolani: "We have moved past the idea of bringing down the regime, this is now a battle for liberation and independence." #Syria
Jolani: "We have moved past the idea of bringing down the regime, this is now a battle for liberation and independence from a Russian and Iranian occupation."
Jolani: "We have no other option but to confront the occupiers and to resist their aggression and tyranny." #Syria
Jolani: "We either achieve victory and we see it with our own eyes, or [achieve] martyrdom in the way of God. What's happening now from massacres & misery is but another episode in this war in which we have no choice but confrontation." #Syria
Overall, Jolani frames the fight as a long-term strategic fight, building on what he frames as half-way successes, and also emphasizes the logic of the fight for outside actors, both in the Middle East and in the US/West. No room for surrender, it's not a choice. #Syria
Jolani: the whole region will have to reckon with the results of the Syrian war "because of how the war's outcome will turn things upside down internationally, and distribute the centers of powers in the region once again."
[Move past the rhetoric, and there is a lot to digest. A big moment for the Syrian conflict & the wider region. The last stand for the Syrian rebels. A lot of scenarios have been put off amid the ongoing fight against Assad & holding/governing territories. New scenarios open up.]
[We know that the rebels, especially the jihadists among them, have been preparing, or talking about, an insurgency at least since late '16, with the recapture of Aleppo by the regime. Much depended on gaining foreign allies, and that shaped strategy & PRIORITIES. That'll change]
[Jolani frames the next chapter in terms any jihadism observer will recognize. I long argued his group, or an incarnation of it, will "inherit" the energy of the Syrian uprising, currently under attack by Russia, Iran & Assad, in the same way ISIS did the 2003 insurgency in 2014]
