Still too early to come to any sweeping conclusions but my early thoughts from a Canadian perspective are this:
- will be interesting to know if any consultation with allies, incl Canada. Trump warned Trudea before Syrian strike. Was that the case here? google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.…
- will be interesting to know if any consultation with allies, incl Canada. Trump warned Trudea before Syrian strike. Was that the case here? google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.…
- As @b_momani notes, immediate major Canadian concern here will be the welfare of our 500 troops on the NATO training mission in Iraq. Situation was already difficult with ongoing protests but this is another level.
- I don't expect an immediate withdrawal. Suspect Ottawa/DND will look to see where the chips fall, including the immediate impact on Iraq. Withdrawal would be a serious step and close to a last resort, IMHO; sign things are really going down hill, force protection not possible.
- As @thomasjuneau has often said on @IntrepidPodcast Canada is not a major player in the Middle East. That said, there will be a lot of concern over fallout of this in Ottawa, particularly potential retaliation against Western targets over the next few weeks/months.
- Canada lists the IRGC-QF as a terrorist entity (here: publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/… . Importantly, this is not the WHOLE IRGC, but a branch of it. There has been pressure to list the entire IRGC for some time.
- @thomasjuneau spells out why that would be difficult to do in practice here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1114493….
- Either way, the major & immediate concern for Canadian national security officials specifically will be the IRGC's capacity to conduct extraterritorial retributive strikes: likely targeted at the US, but could be collateral damage that hits other western countries like Canada.
- one more unsettling thought: In a very short time Iran has dramatically improved its cyber capabilities. If it decides to respond, it may be digital as well as kinetic. This story is from almost four years ago. They have certainly improved since. nytimes.com/2016/03/26/nyr…
