Thread by @MontyBoa99

@justinamash There are 2 inescapable elephants in the room when considering Middle East peace: Israel and its conduct (and US support for that conduct, and control of oil.

A. The root cause of *all* Arab attacks on the U.S. is Israel's ethnic cleansing of Palestine.
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@justinamash Since UN Resolution 108 granted equal parts of Palestine to Palestinians and Jews, Israel has illegally attacked, seized the land of, and displaced millions of Palestinians from the land the UN granted to them.
They have as much claim to that land as the Jews have to Israel.
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@justinamash The US, like any UN member, has a moral right and obligation to support Israel in its *defense* of the land granted by the UN.
But no UN member nation should stand by as the privilege granted by the UN is abused by Israel, let alone support it.
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@justinamash Opposing Israel's illegal land seizures and ethnic cleansing is not "anti-Semitism". It is simply upholding international law and treaties.
Conversely, looking away and allowing it to go uncorrected is complicity. And *supporting* it is aiding and abetting.
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@justinamash Understanding this dynamic underlying tensions in the Middle East allows us to defuse them. Ignoring it prevents us from making progress.
It's that simple.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MontyBoa99/status/1214970689716981760

@justinamash The 2nd elephant in the room is the resentment of US interference in Iranian politics.
The specific action which Iran resents is the 1953 installation of Shah Reza Pahlevi as the ruler of Iran, in exchange for favorable pricing and access to the country's massive oil reserves.
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@justinamash In 1953, the CIA and elements of other European countries' covert forces toppled the democratically-elected President of Iran, because of concerns over his plans to nationalize oil extraction assets.
Whatever you think of nationalization of industries, the coup was an affront.
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@justinamash Iranian resentment of the US-led coup and support for Pahlevi's brutal regime sparked the Iranian Revolution in 1979. They seized 52 US hostages for 300+ days for reparations/revenge.

The US froze Iranian assets, and imposed sanctions.

Until the Iran Nuclear Deal of 2014.
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@justinamash Iran's development of a nuclear program has many potential purposes, but it's clear they don't need the power generation it affords.
Via the Iran Nuclear Deal, it became a tool of extortion, similar to North Korea's: bribe us to stop, or we'll undercut Israel' s advantage.
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@justinamash The "bribe" was relieving the crushing sanctions that prevented Iran from selling its oil at market prices, crippling their economy.
Once the sanctions began to be lifted, Iran sold their oil freely and began earning huge revenues.
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@justinamash As the oil revenue poured into the Iranian treasury, they increased funding their efforts to reduce foreign influence in the Middle East.
Those efforts include insurgent forces where foreign troops are present.
They also include terrorism to destabilize US-backed gov'ts.
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@justinamash When viewed through the lens of a struggle for autonomy, Iran's avowed antipathy towards the U.S. gov't is easier to understand.
That makes it easier to combat or defuse.
Failing to understand it leads to crises like #TrumpsWar.
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@justinamash This is not an endorsement of Iran's viol'ns of other nations' sovereignty, their callous disregard for civilian lives, or their "unprovoked" attack on foreign military units.
But it is an explanation for why this is not a crisis a Kushner can resolve, let alone a Trump.
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@justinamash Untangling the web of Middle Eastern tensions fully may be impossible. For example, sharing Jerusalem as a holy city to 3 religions was precarious at best, but POUTS has made it worse by backing an unlawful seizure in recognizing Israel's sole claim in violation of UNR 108.
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@justinamash Before the US can make progress in helping to ease the tensions, it must stop contributing to them.
Some ideas:
- Put the US Embassy back in Tel Aviv. It s/b representing us in the country's capital, not posing as a political king-of-the-hill flag.
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@justinamash - Rescind the recog'n of Israel's claim to Jerusalem.
- Reduce the influence of the AIPAC lobby, which shields Israel from a US response to redress its illegal seizures.
- Reduce Israel's share of US foreign aid. Restore it as compensation for investments on seized land.
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@justinamash A third major influence on Middle East peace is the nearly 1,400-yr-old feud over the succession after Muslim prophet Muhammad's death. This is a gross oversimplification, but Shia and Sunni sectarian conflict originated there. It has since splintered many times.
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@justinamash This is not intended to imply that the US or any foreign power should try to adjudicate a Muslim issue.
But as Jimmy Carter did with the Camp David Accord, we used to play a mediating role, and if we can regain Arab trust after POUTS's threatening Iraq, may do so again.
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@justinamash Key to our ability to be an effective mediator in the Middle Eastern conflict is the *appearance* of fairness and impartiality, not merely the fact of it.
That is why we *must* remove POUTS, make amends, and use our leverage w/ Israel to compel their compliance w/ treaties.
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@justinamash We must also make our contributions contingent on good faith participation by all parties. We must find a common, collaborative solution to fighting ISIS, and a path to reducing hostilities among all parties, not increasing them.
POUTS clearly cannot be trusted w/ this work.
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@justinamash To combat ISIS effectively, all parties must undermine their ability to recruit and motivate fighters.
That means two things:
- Where their goals are achievable, do it for them by *peaceful* means so that they cannot justify their violent means.
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@justinamash - Where their goals cannot be accomplished (such as the destruction of the state of Israel), confront them with the same dilemma used against other insurgents: die out while losing ground, or come to the negotiating table and find alternatives.
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@justinamash Key to both strategies is offering an economic alternative to fighting: stable income for productive work, and a safe future. That means investment, but (eventually) under local management, a non-trivial matter. Kushner was part-way there (the only good part of his proposal).
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@justinamash Given that Trump has essentially pissed in the pool of Middle Eastern diplomacy, the US role in a peace process must involve recanting prior offenses (as part of a reset by all parties) and offering modest reparations. That would likely help restore mutual respect.
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@justinamash The biggest hurdles I see:
- All these analyses and proposals are cursory; subject matter expert insight may unearth improvements or landmines
- Fighting is now a heritage for insurgents and their families
- Coexistence depends on mutual respect based on benefits, not threats
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@justinamash - The US's errors have helped justify authoritarian gov'ts, by painting us as a constant threat and a scapegoat. Goodwill is the only remedy; e.g. the Iran Nuclear Deal was helping to undermine support for Iran's theocracy (until POUTS reinstated our scapegoat role).
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@justinamash For a Middle East peace plan to work, all states must agree to guarantee an outcome for Israel that includes an equivalent of the land granted in UN Resolution 108.

They must also agree to share access to holy sites in which they have a common religious interest.
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@justinamash They must also agree to guarantee an outcome for the Palestinians that includes an equivalent of the land granted in UNR 108, much of which is now Israeli-occupied.

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@justinamash The conflicting claims to land which the Arabs lost when they were defeated I the Arab-Israeli War of 1967 must also be resolved.
If those lands are returned to the Palestinians by Israel, Israel is entitled to compensation. That compensation counts as war reparations.
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@justinamash Israel has received over a trillion dollars in military aid from the US over decades. That aid would not have been necessary had the Arabs not intended to take back Israeli land, in abrogation of the UN Resolution that granted it, and engaged in a major war to prosecute it.
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@justinamash This suggests that Arab aggression and Israeli expansionism are the root causes of the current tensions.

To defuse Arab aggression, they must see that their valid grievances are being addressed, with no foot-dragging, towards an end goal satisfactory to them.
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@justinamash To demotivate Israeli expansionism, they must see that the national needs that expansionism was serving are met in other ways.

Two options: provide the means to expand...
- upwards with taller buildings
- outwards into the Mediterranean Sea. The Netherlanders are exemplars.
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@justinamash If these recommendations seem simplistic and optimistic, that's because they are. But they are sound starting points for a vision of peace that resolves most grievances, claims and needs, as long as the parties agree to be bound by the agreements, and do so.
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@justinamash Of course, with large armies, insurgent forces, and a political dynamic of posturing and face-saving fueling potential future conflicts, an incentive would need to exist to discourage further tit-for-tat cycles.
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@justinamash One could be a reparations fund into which all parties pay a portion of their GDP & wealth.
When an offense is committed, instead of exacting retribution, the offended party could make a claim against the offender's funds, which would include a turnover ceremony between them.
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@justinamash Is breaking down the cycle of retribution achievable in a single presidency? No.
A decade? No.
...
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@justinamash Is breaking down the cycle of retribution achievable in a generation?
Maybe. That's how long it will likely take all insurgents and their families to adapt to doing something besides fighting as a vocation. It's also how long it will take to replace the old guard in politics.
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