Thread by @FirasMaksad

BREAKING

Deal reached on #Lebanon gov after 3 months of protests amidst deteriorating econ conditions. Line-up of twenty nominal technocrats to be announced, but politically gov even more beholden to pro-Hezbollah coalition.

Here's the who, how and so what of it all.

2- Weeks of wrangling seem to have ended after Hezbollah repeatedly stepped-in to sort out differences amongst allies. Hezb made clear it wants a gov ASAP, particularly after rising street violence & regional uncertainty post #qassemsulaimani killing

https://twitter.com/jamil_el_sayyed/status/1219640487608561665?s=20

3- As a result, PM Diab expanded proposed cabinet from 18 to 20, & Speaker Berri ended push for more politically inclusive "gov of salvation," accepting Diab's nominally technocratic gov instead.

Berri met PM Diab for 2h last week to clear the air & agree on portfolios.

4- "Technocratic gov" a first since 1990 post Taef 2nd Republic, but most have ties to pro-Hezb parties.

Outgoing FM @Gebran_Bassil repeatedly secured enough seats to wield veto.

Protesters calling it "Halloween Gov," given thinly disguised return of establishment politicians

5- From the get-go, this gov will have virtually no Sunni or Druze support & mixed standing amongst Christians. Life expectancy even shorter considering econ freefall & tough measures ahead.

Dont expect PM @saadhariri, @walidjoumblatt & @DRSAMIRGEAGEA to sail quietly into sunset

6- Hariri in opposition will have imp impact, not only on Sunni street & Sunni/Shia tensions, but also int donors. Strong ties to #France Macron & @SecPompeo

Some Europeans may lean positively, but (at best) US & Gulf will take "wait & see" approach.

No major funding expected

7- Qatar could be outlier, some noise about willingness to help up to 5bn USD (doubt it). This could better position it with Iran, which Qatar appeasing since spike in tension post Suleimani killing. Emir & FM visited #Iran separately since. Would also buy it goodwill in Lebanon

8- But overall, announcement of new Lebanon gov will NOT reverse Lebanon's negative trajectory & unlikely to free $11bn in projects promised at Paris donor conf.

Instead, pressure to suspend US military aid ($1.6bn since 2006) & ostracize Lebanon likely to rise in Washington

9- Lebanon has about $90bn in debt, $1.2bn of which due on March 9, 1/2 owed to foreign lenders.

Central Bank was asked to STOP prep for debt swap after rating agencies warned it would be “selective default.”

Rising calls for debt restructuring/prioritizing local gov spending

10- With new pro-Hezbollah gov, imp to keep eye on key posts like army commander & Central Bank gov

PM Diab could resist attempts to replace them. It would sharpen divisions, divert from econ challenge & alienate int donors.

Still Hezb & Bassil hold sway & eager to consolidate

11- To conclude, #Lebanon's new gov will not have required political legs for normal times, let alone for unprecedented upheaval

Politically & financially (absent Qatari miracle) this expected gov is bad news.

Hezb making strategic mistake. There will be no viable way forward.