Only 5.1% of actual patients in China are manifest says epidemiology model. There are actually 11k patients to rise to 190k by Feb 4. 75% of transmission must occur for it to slow. Current quarantine probably doomed.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
"Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage."
Correction 75% must be prevented to slow.
The simple minded way to check if the model is any good is to see if reported numbers explode in the next few days and run the Bayesian.
