Given more # are now released by countries like Korea, Japan, Germany that have evacuated citizens from Wuhan, a relative calculation cross the board as a proxy shows infection rate is around ~1% in Wuhan (cont. 
a few caveats
1. Thorough medical exam has been done before each evacuation, who have been evacuated shows NO symptoms before onboarding
this is confirmed by a local Wuhan who just sent his wife & daughter (both Germany) out via evacuation process m.douban.com/people/3033829…
1. Thorough medical exam has been done before each evacuation, who have been evacuated shows NO symptoms before onboarding
this is confirmed by a local Wuhan who just sent his wife & daughter (both Germany) out via evacuation process m.douban.com/people/3033829…
2. most being evacuated are foreigners whose social circles generally are much narrower than Wuhan locals.
Given #1 and 2, So the actual density of infection can be higher
but let's use 1% on the conservative side for now
Given #1 and 2, So the actual density of infection can be higher
but let's use 1% on the conservative side for now
IF 1% infection rate, Wuhan population is ~10mm: 100k infections. IF 10% are serious infection needs full hospitalization, it aligned with public health governer once stated in news release "Hubei province prepares 100k beds capacity and Wuhan plans 10k"
sohu.com/a/369482924_42…
sohu.com/a/369482924_42…
What's the actual mortality rate? the official number might be delayed/under-reported, but knowing the process of "reporting death" makes it hard to accurately extrapolate.
Since the elders seem to be effected disproportionally, many died before they can have a proper PCR test
Since the elders seem to be effected disproportionally, many died before they can have a proper PCR test
a local mainstream media's in-depth investigative report is also backing above assumption, which gives you a good picture of the chaos in Wuhan local hospital and why the reported death number seems to be under-reported
sohu.com/a/370032279_12…
sohu.com/a/370032279_12…
After reading a handful of scientific papers and modeling with different assumptions, I think the chart below illustrates the characteristics of #coronavrius really well.
I'm never a fan of any conspiracy theories, most fall into the realm of Occam's Razor
Don't trust, verify
I'm never a fan of any conspiracy theories, most fall into the realm of Occam's Razor
Don't trust, verify
the chart above from @nytimes
also forgot to mention another caveat on the overall nationwide infected numbers:
During Chinese New Year, 5m out of the 11mm Wuhan ppl headed out to other regions during the holiday. This makes the national transmission rate hard to model
also forgot to mention another caveat on the overall nationwide infected numbers:
During Chinese New Year, 5m out of the 11mm Wuhan ppl headed out to other regions during the holiday. This makes the national transmission rate hard to model
