Thread by @Nervana_1

Thread on #Erdogan and #Syria:
From 2012 to date, Erdogan has never had clear political goal in Syria.
His policies has alwaysbeen reactionary in response to events on the ground 1/

At the initial phase of the Syrian civil war, #Erdogan has raised his rhetoric and openly asked Assad to step down. But he never followed his threats with clear measures or policies on the ground. 2/

Erdogan wrongly assumed that Assad will buckle under pressure and stepped down, and opened the gates for Syrian refugees to enter Turkey. He assumed they will stay for few months. He was wrong on both assumption: Assad stayed in power, and Turkey stuck with a refugees problem 3/

In his desperate attempt to topple Assad, #Erdogan allowed Islamists from around the globe to enter Syria to fight Assad, which helped both #ISIS and Al-Qaeda 4/

Erdogan was later forced to forge deals with Assad’s patrons Russia and Iran and create “de-escalation zones”.
But again, he NEVER discussed a final political settlement to save the areas under opposition control. 5/

In his quest to please Russia, Erdogan went ahead with the S400 arm deal, despite vocal opposition from US and NATO. But Russia continued to erode the Syrian areas under opposition control, leaving Idlib as final refuge for Anti-Assad.
Again Erdogan did nothing to stop that 6/

To add insult to injury, #Erdogan picked the most skilled Syrian opposition, and shipped them to Libya to fight on a different front.
It is no surprise that Assad forces have sensed the fragility of opposition forces ( now mainly pro-Al Qaeda HTS Nusra) in Idlib 7/

Ill-prepared Erdogan is forced to enter Idlib to save face against the Russian esclation.
His today’s response to death of 13 Turkish soldiers indicates he still has NO political plan for his Syrian adventure 8/

#Erdogan’s Turkey is now dragged to a war of attrition in Syria, between pro-Iran Assadists and pro-AlQaeda Nusra.
This war will not end anytime soon, and can drain the Turkish resource.
8/

In short, #Erdogan:
•has no political plan in #Syria
• has no exit strategy from Syria
•Dragging NATO and US to stand by Al-Qaeda Nusra against Assad forces.
@realDonaldTrump
•Risk an embarrassing confrontation with Russia after he bought Russian defense system! #End