As situation escalates dramatically: what to do, 🇪🇺🇩🇪? @ESI_eu 2015 paper: “The key to stopping the uncontrolled arrival of hundreds of thousands of migrants and asylum seekers in the European Union in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent months is held by Turkey ...
... only a strategy acknowledging this fact that can end the vast humanitarian crisis that is shaking the foundations of the Schengen compact & the European asylum system [and EU]” (esiweb.org/sites/default/…) @ecfr @nigargoksel @JosepBorrellF @MiRo_SPD @n_roettgen @tom_nuttall @hrw
And: “With such numbers now on the move, the European Union cannot hope to prevent mass arrivals without the support of Turkey. But the notion that Turkey will employ heavy security measures to prevent the departure of Syrians, and take back those who reach Greece ...
... while Europe stands by, is completely unrealistic. Short of a resolution to the Syrian conflict, what is needed now is a serious commitment to burden-sharing and solidarity.” @ESI_eu esiweb.org/publications/w…
@Dimitrov_Nikola @polenz_r @ArminLaschet @akk @POLITICOEurope
@Dimitrov_Nikola @polenz_r @ArminLaschet @akk @POLITICOEurope
Implications for 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷 2020: 1. Russia has (again) an interest in a big refugee crisis, which weakens Turkey, helps Assad & all its far-right friends in Europe. 2. EU must help 🇹🇷 cope. It is country with largest number of refugees in the world already.
This means: a. Immediate agreement on continuing financial support for 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. It is incomprehensible that 🇪🇺 has not done so yet. b. 🇩🇪🇹🇷🇨🇦 to organise urgent meeting with others to relocate vulnerable refugees from 🇹🇷, as many more arrive
A model: the Geneva 1979 conference on boat people in South East Asia. (Today 4 percent of population of 🇹🇷 are Syrian refugees already!)
@Refugees @UNHCR_de @carlbildt @markhleonard @jana_puglierin @D_Schwarzer @Andric1961 @thkirchner @jan_techau @MariamLau1 @Maximilian_Popp
@Refugees @UNHCR_de @carlbildt @markhleonard @jana_puglierin @D_Schwarzer @Andric1961 @thkirchner @jan_techau @MariamLau1 @Maximilian_Popp
c. 🇪🇺 🇬🇷 need to get serious NOW about improving conditions on Greek islands & help 🇬🇷 fast, to be able to implement renewed 🇪🇺🇹🇷 statement II. Note: The present disastrous humanitarian crisis in 🇬🇷 took place while 99.5 % of Syrians remained in 🇹🇷 2019! @nmitarakis @kmitsotakis
The big context: for Turkey & EU: it was huge mistake for Ankara to trust in deals with Moscow. As @ESI_eu wrote in 2015: “ In recent times, a resurgent Russia has been revising borders, annexing territories and supporting separatists in the northern Black Sea ...
... It has moved its military into annexed territories in the Southern Caucasus. Now, it has launched a major military intervention on Turkey's southern border, attacking groups that the US and Turkey have long supported. Turkey today finds itself surrounded by hostile states ..
... armed groups, in a more precarious strategic position than at any time since the end of the Cold War. At such a time, good relations with Europe are a key anchor for Turkish security.” Read: esiweb.org/publications/m… And ...
“The rise of an anti-Muslim, pro-Putin far right in European politics should therefore be a cause for real concern.” Turkey needs 🇪🇺 & 🇪🇺 needs 🇹🇷. Or new huge refugee crisis might fatally weaken NATO, destabilise Greece & Westen Balkans, kill the refugee convention. Cui Bono?
