Thread by @theeuropedesk

Great to be @MiddleEastInst for an event on #EU-#MiddleEast relations with @AlexVatanka, Przemyslaw Osiewicz and @KianpourWorld. What do changes in EU personnel and the new @EU_Commission mean for EU-MENA relations?

Listen to our own MENA episode on Europe and #Iran here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eur…

What are the main issues in MENA region for EU?
1) #MiddleEast Peace Plan
2) Iran
3) #Libya
4) #Syria

For reference, here is Osiewicz's latest MEI piece: mei.edu/publications/e…

On Israel-Palestine, EU stands by a two-state solution, standing in opposition to the US.

On Syria, EU influence is very weak, and it is unlikely to join up with Russia or Turkey.

On Libya, EU supports Government of National Accord in Tripoli, and is the biggest donor of humanitarian aid.

#Migration is the key concern: Brussels wants to ensure that refugee flows to Europe do not increase.

@AlexVatanka argues that #Tehran does not expect the EU to deliver in opposition to the US, but will continue to speak and play a "waiting game".

@AlexVatanka Vatanka: EU High Representative @JosepBorrellF has already been to Tehran to try and persuade Iranians to comply with #JCPOA, and in return EU will not take them to the UNSC.

Tehran has condemned Swiss humanitarian channel as "too little too late".

UK Ambassador is back in place in Tehran, in spite of controversy regarding his proximity to recent protests. This suggests that hardliners in Tehran are under control.

See recent op-ed by @JosepBorrellF in Project Syndicate: project-syndicate.org/commentary/emb…

Europeans do not trust Trump's maximum pressure towards Iran, but "Europeans must deal with the world as it is, not as they wish it to be," Borrell argued.

@JosepBorrellF Osiewicz noted different priorities across the #EU: while #France and #Italy focus on #Mediterranean, central and eastern Europe look to the Black Sea and the eastern neighborhood. He does not see #Turkey becoming an EU member under #Erdogan.

@AlexVatanka notes that the Iranian regime is not an easy one for EU to defend either: the Islamic Republic continues to oppress its own people.

He notes that, in addition, EU is also looking to manage its relations with #China.

Commission President @vonderleyen wants a new start to the EU's foreign policy -- the "geopolitical Commission". But is it really going to happen? Osiewicz argues that the main priorities will remain the same: mei.edu/publications/e…

@KianpourWorld asks whether @JosepBorrellF will be different from @FedericaMog?

@AlexVatanka says EU will remain weak on Iran - only 8 member states have joined #INSTEX trade mechanis and European companies are not interested in choosing Iranian over US market...

...so Borrell will be no stronger than Mogherini, because it's not about the personalities.

@KianpourWorld asks if Borrell agrees with Iran's role in #Syria? Osiewicz says no, because the Europeans have no leverage there. The only way for EU to be a player would be to ally with Turkey and Russia to approach #Assad. This remains unlikely.

EU also imposed sanctions on Iran over human rights. But it continues to pay Iran millions of Euros to keep 2 million Afghan refugees in Iran so they do not move towards Europe. This continues to be a bargaining chip in negotiations...

...and Iranian FM @JZarif has threatened to release them westwards.

@JZarif @KianpourWorld: What about #migration? What actions can the EU take?

EU priority is to keep refugees outside the European Union. Payments to Turkey are a key example of this. EU's aims in #Yemen and #Lebanon are similar. Number of migrants to EU is decreasing year-on-year.

What about #EU-#US relations? Osiewicz still believes in #transatlantic relationship between peoples of Europe and US, but on the policy level things are diverging.

@AlexVatanka: in Tehran, they underestimate the strength of transatlantic relations. The EU is not going to come to Tehran's aid. The EU is waiting to see what happens in the 2020 election, and will then try to re-engage fully with Iran.

If Trump re-elected, EU would continue to find a workaround without Iranian oil. One option for the EU would be to facilitate new multilateral talks between Iran and the US. Bilateral talks with US are not an option, so someone like @EmmanuelMacron may be able to facilitate talks

@EmmanuelMacron @JosepBorrellF's open criticism of #Israel in the past has been noted in Jerusalem, but as High Rep. Borrell is no longer able to express this support. Is the EU anti-Israel? In the sense that it supports a two-state solution, but you cannot imagine @vonderleyen...

...criticizing Israel directly, especially as a German.

@KianpourWorld Is it time for a new EU security strategy in light of #Brexit? EU is weaker now as a result of Brexit in terms of economic power, says Osiewicz, but he believes the UK will be back within 20 yrs. In the Gulf, UK absence will weaken EU influence given historic ties.

@KianpourWorld: What is next after the failure of the #BerlinSummit on #Libya? EU supports both sides coming to the table, but the EU/US position has been reactive, based on #Russia's presence. A failed state in on the Mediterranean will not be good for European security.

@KianpourWorld Overall, EU seems to be lacking a clear strategy or long-term objective in North Africa.

@KianpourWorld @threadreaderapp unroll