/1 At the risk of looking like a fool by Monday, I want to make the case for why I am a buyer of Bitcoin at the $8,500-$8,600 level, near 20% off the recent local high. In a sea of shorts frothing about a continued plunge, it seems like the contrarian position to adopt. 
/2 Beginning with a broad macro perspective, after 7 days of rarely seen bloodshed in global equity markets, and in particular US equities, bidders have finally stepped in today with a rally off the capitulation notched in the overnight spoos markets.
/3 Gold is down the most since 2013, possibly sold to cover margin calls - this is a further sign of an emotional and capitulatory macro environment. In all of this, Bitcoin has held, losing less on the day than gold(!).
/4 The tuned-in market observer has also seen tremendous absorption of chunky multi-million dollar market sells into a confluence of potential support levels.
See:
See:
/5 This sort of spasticated action with price not budging downwards is indicative of a large, patient latent buying interest.
And while selling has hammered the bid, few asks have been inserted above, opening the market to the opportunity of a surprisingly large move upwards.
And while selling has hammered the bid, few asks have been inserted above, opening the market to the opportunity of a surprisingly large move upwards.
/6 Unexpectedly, I find myself thinking that a leg up with its accompanying short squeeze if risk-off pressure subsides would be of a larger magnitude than a break-down into continued bid interest accumulating on orderbooks. Buyers surprisingly feel, almost, in control.
/7
External factors that push BTC's price often provide excellent opportunities for taking the other side. And with the halving looming closer every day, and that narrative showing its potential strength in January, Bitcoin's inherent tilt is overwhelmingly bullish in my mind.
External factors that push BTC's price often provide excellent opportunities for taking the other side. And with the halving looming closer every day, and that narrative showing its potential strength in January, Bitcoin's inherent tilt is overwhelmingly bullish in my mind.
/8 And a cherry on top - a narrative is slowing sprouting among the forward-looking that the rate-cuts almost made inevitable by the implosion of risk markets and stand-still in credit will make Bitcoin more attractive on a macro relative basis.
/9 This will be followed, once monetary tools are exhausted, by a turn to fiscal stimulus (a la the helicopter drops of cash in Hong Kong) that will ratchet inflation expectations and add to the allure of Bitcoin's stable, certain monetary policy.
/10 Or, it could just be that I'll be walking down the stairs of hope.
/11 Addendum: like clockwork, Powell the dove calming a near-fatally shot market.
