Thread by @onlyyoontv

Holy moly. I had to do a double take 👀. #China’s factories activity plunges, worse than global financial crisis in 2008/9.
-Manufacturing PMI lowest on record at 35.7 (v. est 46, Jan 50)
-Non-manufacturing PMI at 29.6 (v. est 50.5, Jan 54.1)
-Composite PMI at 28.9 (v. Jan 53)

https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1233427967730049024

Again, this is why investors are panicking. The dramatic slowdown is the impact of #coronavirus on #China’s economy- and a window at what can happen in other countries depending on virus spread and government responses. More data to be released out of China this week. 😓🙏

Next indicator for us in #China: @caixin #manufacturing PMI due on Mon: est. 45.7 (v. Jan 51.1). 50 is # dividing contraction v. growth. Caixin survey tracks private, smaller firms versus official PMI which follows larger, often state, manufacturers. #coronavirus #supplychain

My own personal indicator of economic activity: pollution outside my window. The grey cloud is back! Hope this is a forward-looking sign production in #China is resuming on a wider scale. Now, back to what’s become my usual weekend routine-disinfecting the house! #coronavirus

#China economy to contract by 2% in Q1 on sequential basis, says #ANZ Research. Bank is revising down Q1 GDP forecast to +2% y/y (previously 3.2−4.0%). Says chances of V-shaped rebound are low, as government is unlikely to launch a massive stimulus. Cuts 2020 forecast to 4.1%.

For @Nomura, #China team expects growth near zero or negative year-on-year for most activity data in Mar. Notes PMI compiler said re-opening rate of surveyed enterprises will rise to 90.8% at end-Mar from current 78.9%. Also worries about risk of 2nd wave of #coronavirus cases.