My ranges of projections for COVID-19 deaths, hospitalisations, and intensive care usage, globally and in the UK. (NB. With ranges for % population infected and death rates, neither of which are clear). Plus my intuition in green where the numbers might end up. (1) @BBCHughPym
Please note I am not a mathematical modeller. The reason I chose the green zones is because I think death rate will fall to between 0.5-1.0% as we learn how many people are actually infected, and 20-30% of the population will be infected simply based on Spanish flu which was 27%.
My green projections suggest
GLOBAL deaths: 7.72-23.16m, hospitalisation 154-289m, ICU need 23.1-43.4m
UK deaths: 67,500-201,000, hospitalisation 1.34-2.51m, and ICU need 268,000-503,000.
GLOBAL deaths: 7.72-23.16m, hospitalisation 154-289m, ICU need 23.1-43.4m
UK deaths: 67,500-201,000, hospitalisation 1.34-2.51m, and ICU need 268,000-503,000.
But these assumptions could easily be too high if the virus mutates into a more benign form or my assumptions are wrong, and too low if the death rates and morbidity rates don't fall as I expect.
