I get the impression that people STILL don’t understand the importance of understanding exponential growth. Canada has had 20% growth in #covid19 in past week. But compare that to the 33% growth elsewhere on this chart. The meaning? 2/ 
If Canada maintains 20% growth, in 30 days, our 249 cases will have grown to 59,106 cases. But if our growth rate was same 33% as elsewhere, we would have 1,293,447 cases
Another 10 days? 365,973 infections Vs 22,400,875 infections. The difference between 20% daily growth and 33% daily growth is...exponential
Don’t listen to people who say the main game is limiting imported cases, and not controlling community spread. Yes, fewer imported cases=better. But maintaining a relatively low growth rate in community infections is virtually the ENTIRE game if goal is saving lives in long run
Yes, yes. Fewer cases, any kind, imported or not = better. But the energy and expertise and resources and political focus must be invested in preventing community spread and keeping daily rate lower. A few percent points makes a massive difference
Here’s a rough look at how Canada’s 20% growth rate would compare if maintained for 15 days after the 100th infection (as per other places) worse than some Asian places (Japan, Sing, HK). Much better than elsewhere
(In my first tweet I mean 20% DAILY growth over the past week, not 20% total growth for the entire past week)
Also, also: More border controls are almost definitely coming. That doesn’t mean changing the focus on the community infection rate
And the exponential growth rates don’t last forever thank god: eventually infection clusters in communities decline as the virus finds fewer uninfected people to infect
And that’s about it
But WASH YOUR HANDS AND STOP TOUCHING YOUR DAMN FACE
