Thread by @_benoux_

Thread: What's going on with the pandemic plans?

1/ It seems that both UK and France adapted for #COVID19 their pandemic plans for influenza, constructed in 2011. We see the philosophy of two different national policies.

2/ The french pandemic plan was set out on October 2011, by the Secrétariat général de la défense et de la sécurité national.

Important Note: this secretary is central, dedicated to national security & defense, not to health

PDF of the FR national plan

solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Plan_P…

3/ One month later, November 2011, we have the "UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011". It seems to be signed by a decentralized (regional) Department of Health (DHSSPS).

You can find the PDF in the bottom of the page here theguardian.com/world/ng-inter…

4/ US, in contrast, the National Security Council had set out a Global Health Security Unit (not National... Global).

It was disbanded by Donald Trump in May 2018, as a result of immense political polarization.

homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20180511-whi…

5/ I would guess all countries had to build a new plan in 2011, after the 2009-2010 "Swine flu".

6/ Emmanuel Macron, so far, follows the main steps of the 2011 French plan (w/ some adaptations). You could - literally - predict every major Presidential announcement just by reading the plan.

Now we're in "Stade 3" expected to last (in the case of influenza) 8 to 12 weeks.

7/ The "Stade 3" also predicts the closure of schools. It's interesting since it quotes a scientific observation that during vacations (closed schools) the young get fewer infections by 1/4.

8/ The French plan doesn't have a lot of text. It's full of diagrams with domains that the administration should not ignore. Nothing is considered a given.

Example: water supply, secure food of 1st necessity, control transports (including by water, air, train or rivers) etc.

9/ Now, let's go to the UK plan. One of the most contradictory and bizarre texts I've ever read.

Example:

"7.4 Bussiness as usual."

"The UK Government does NOT plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during ANY PANDEMIC."

10/ The UK plan makes the pandemic looks like a stroll in the park with transports & food as simple "Business continuity arrangements", not as a national security threat.

"Universities and Colleges all have their own business continuity plans".

11/ The paradox is that the UK plan takes into consideration the worse types of influenza pandemics (including the Spanish flu) and makes the most ridiculously simple and naive recommendations ("business as usual").

12/ What happens in case of escalation? It's a non-plan plan, just proposing ... decentralisation.

"Maximising the use of capacity remains the responsibility of local health organisations. In severe circumstances, it will not be possible to continue business as usual”.

13/ Overall the 2011 UK plan focuses on a simple idea: business as usual. Why? Is it a bad epidemiological model? I don't think so. We have to search for deeper reasons.

The plan doesn't even rationalize on herd immunity. This is just a footnote related to vaccines.

14/ For clarity: the UK plan is not a bad epidemiological model because it's not an epidemiological model, at all.

The "Whole of society response" goes from "business as usual" to "managing deaths" (210,000 - 315,000 additional deaths across the UK over a 15 week period).