The UK govt and modellers have finally realised there is a catastrophic flaw in the model they have been relying on for the last 6 weeks.
The modellers at Imperial (one of whom I met back in 2005) basically didn't factor in that this disease requires a very high number of intensive care beds. They have now admitted their mistake and the govt will move to suppression as their primary goal like the rest of the EU.
Other people had realised this before but I tweeted this approximate guess at the impact of the lack of ICU beds here if a "Herd immunity" approach was to be taken
This got picked up by Rory Stewart here:
This got picked up by Rory Stewart here:
Also these tweets which, four days ago, might have seemed histrionic but which I stand by 100%
And I queried the epidemiological modelling here, 9 days ago
and Johnson's lack of action 13 days ago, based on the lack of seriousness in London that afternoon
and Johnson's lack of action 13 days ago, based on the lack of seriousness in London that afternoon
And queried Johnson's "take it on the chin" comment made after a crucial Cobra meeting here
I got a lot of flak for querying the experts and had been told several times to "shut the f*** up"
I got a lot of flak for querying the experts and had been told several times to "shut the f*** up"
On Mar 12 I did my own personal risk analysis and concluded through the logic in the attached note and this math :
"solve (1.22)^x * 450 > 5000. Add 12 (the date). Subtract 10"
docs.google.com/document/d/1jo…
"solve (1.22)^x * 450 > 5000. Add 12 (the date). Subtract 10"
docs.google.com/document/d/1jo…
That is, based on the exponential growth factor of 1.22 and base of 450 and intensive care capacity of 5000 , we had until March 23-26 when all ICU beds would be full.
Taking into account 10 days of incubation (5 days for my kids to exoress it, then 5 for my wife and I) I kept the kids at home from last Monday.
My recommendation to you all is to keep your children at home, regardless of what the govt says today or this week. The govt are making a massive uturn as you saw yesterday. However they are wrong to keep the schools open (and will surely close them tomorrow or end of week)
This is backed up by this analysis by a Prof from the Pasteur Institute in Shanghai. The schools should be shut, now
Please, even for the sake of both yourselves and others (by not taking up valuable intensive care slots), consider keeping your kids at home as soon as possible.
This applies especially in London, where the govt have said yesterday that London is "three weeks ahead of the rest of the UK on the epidemic curve"
I state a lot of opinions on twitter and take a critical stance. However it is very, very rare that I recommend action for others especially in such a critical situation. I trust you respect my for making an exception here.
cc @RoryStewartUK
cc @RoryStewartUK
Every day of additional exposure via school is, in my assessment, a risk to you and your family, since you will likely not have ICUs to help you if you get a critical case now, or are transmitted one by your kids. This was my judgment on March 15 and remains my judgment now.
Stay safe everyone. I aim to tweet a lot less about this topic as we enter the long days ahead. Back to F#.
Re: keeping kids at home: you must make your own judgment about practicality, risk, exposure, education, care.
What I mean is: if it's feasible to have your children at home, just do it, even if schools are open.
What I mean is: if it's feasible to have your children at home, just do it, even if schools are open.
And I also mean this: whatever social separation (ie physical separation) you can do with you and your children, you should do now.
