@PoliticoRyan Dear @PoliticoRyan: Thank you for your nice analysis. I completely agree w India & homeless/refugee shelters (#1 & #3). But not so sure about #Russia, #Germany, & #Iceland. Rate of spread depends on PREVENTION/MITIGATION POLICIES in a community/country.
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@PoliticoRyan #Russia seems to have established very strict intervention measures, including mandatory quarantines and lockdowns. They are probably not truthful about their testing stats, but that has not much to do with the dynamics of disease spread.
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@PoliticoRyan For example, #China most probably underreported cases/deaths by at least 10×, but they succeeded in controlling the spread through strict nationwide prevention/mitigation measures.
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@PoliticoRyan #Germany follows scientific method in decision-making, so I have little doubt that they will succeed in turning the tide on #coronavirus, like S. Korea did. Merkel understands science, so she is highly concerned. That is a great thing, as it would lead to serious intervention.
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@PoliticoRyan #Iceland has a high #COVID+ rate per capita. But again, that does not necessarily predict the future dynamics of disease there. It actually shows that they have done a great job with testing and quarantining patients, so I expect them to navigate through this crisis w success.
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@PoliticoRyan Also, #Iceland has a very low population density, which means better social (physical) distancing. And they are highly educated, so that means they would be able to quickly adapt their personal hygiene standards to reduce the transmission rate.
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@PoliticoRyan I would be highly concerned about countries with:
(A) a high population density, which makes physical distancing difficult, as you argued about India & refugee/homeless shelters;
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(A) a high population density, which makes physical distancing difficult, as you argued about India & refugee/homeless shelters;
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@PoliticoRyan (B) countries with a lower level of average education, which would make it harder to train its citizens about transmission mechanisms of #coronavirus and thus how to avoid its transmission.
Many countries in South Asia, Central America, & Africa would be possible examples.
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Many countries in South Asia, Central America, & Africa would be possible examples.
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@PoliticoRyan Finally, I think the US & UK will be in a lot of trouble, as our governments denied scientific evidence and methods for over 10 weeks (early January until now, mid March), hence allowing #COVID to widely spread in both countries.
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