zerohedge.com/energy/why-sau…
Interesting read; and falls in line with how i'd expect oil to behave going into 2021.
The only thing i find missing is the perspective that War is good for the price of oil, US Shale *also* needs higher prices = more motive for the US-China war path.
Interesting read; and falls in line with how i'd expect oil to behave going into 2021.
The only thing i find missing is the perspective that War is good for the price of oil, US Shale *also* needs higher prices = more motive for the US-China war path.
Just to clarify, if we look at a #China-#USA conflict through the lens of #oil prices, i see:
1. The price of oil rises.
2. US #Shale needs higher oil prices.
3. China, being the worlds largest importer of oil by far, needs lower oil prices.
4. #SaudiArabia needs higher prices.
1. The price of oil rises.
2. US #Shale needs higher oil prices.
3. China, being the worlds largest importer of oil by far, needs lower oil prices.
4. #SaudiArabia needs higher prices.
Higher #oil prices hurt Chinese industry while helping US industry (currency stays local because of #shale). It hurts the EU too but the US is pretty much past the point of caring about Europe, geopolitically speaking.
In this case, #Russia's the Red Herring. They don't matter.
In this case, #Russia's the Red Herring. They don't matter.
They're in no position to start or lose anything. Higher #oil prices helps them, but considering they have almost no state #debt and their entire monetary base is basically backed by #gold they'll be fine.
The #Ruble only tanked cause the world sees it as tied to oil prices only
The #Ruble only tanked cause the world sees it as tied to oil prices only
Yes their economy is hurting like anybody else's but there's one thing the author forgets:
#Russians are poor as shiat.
I mean dirt poor. I've got a #Russian friend who i asked back around November last year "what's the average income around your area?"
#Russians are poor as shiat.
I mean dirt poor. I've got a #Russian friend who i asked back around November last year "what's the average income around your area?"
He said "375-450 euro a month in my city, but i live in a region capital. In the villages around here it'd be half that".
The #Russia you know from movies? That's #Moscow and St. Petersburg basically. Everybody else in villages still have gardens cause they have to.
The #Russia you know from movies? That's #Moscow and St. Petersburg basically. Everybody else in villages still have gardens cause they have to.
This can easily be seen by a simple calculation:
#Netherlands: 17,145,900 population, GDP (2019): 909,070,000,000.
#Russia: 145,952,618 population, GDP (2019): 1,699,877,000,000
Divide #GDP by Population and we get:
NL: $53,019.7 per capita
RU: $11,646.8
#NL/#RU = 4.55.
#Netherlands: 17,145,900 population, GDP (2019): 909,070,000,000.
#Russia: 145,952,618 population, GDP (2019): 1,699,877,000,000
Divide #GDP by Population and we get:
NL: $53,019.7 per capita
RU: $11,646.8
#NL/#RU = 4.55.
Now the question is: Could a #Russian do the same work as a Dutchie, if he has access to knowledge and capital?
If Yes, then there's a 4.55x growth potential in Russian GDP.
Or to bring it back; Compared to the #Netherlands, #Russia only utilizes 22% of its GDP potential.
If Yes, then there's a 4.55x growth potential in Russian GDP.
Or to bring it back; Compared to the #Netherlands, #Russia only utilizes 22% of its GDP potential.
BTW, for the #USA VS #Netherlands, that comes down to:
$21,427,700,000,000/331,570,258= $64,624
So we're 82% of the US.
Ours will come down so it's more like 3x then 4,5x - but still.
My point in all of this. Russia stands to lose a whole lot less. They have nothing already.
$21,427,700,000,000/331,570,258= $64,624
So we're 82% of the US.
Ours will come down so it's more like 3x then 4,5x - but still.
My point in all of this. Russia stands to lose a whole lot less. They have nothing already.
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