Deso Profile picture
14 Oct, 9 tweets, 7 min read
zerohedge.com/energy/why-sau…

Interesting read; and falls in line with how i'd expect oil to behave going into 2021.

The only thing i find missing is the perspective that War is good for the price of oil, US Shale *also* needs higher prices = more motive for the US-China war path.
Just to clarify, if we look at a #China-#USA conflict through the lens of #oil prices, i see:

1. The price of oil rises.
2. US #Shale needs higher oil prices.
3. China, being the worlds largest importer of oil by far, needs lower oil prices.
4. #SaudiArabia needs higher prices.
Higher #oil prices hurt Chinese industry while helping US industry (currency stays local because of #shale). It hurts the EU too but the US is pretty much past the point of caring about Europe, geopolitically speaking.

In this case, #Russia's the Red Herring. They don't matter.
They're in no position to start or lose anything. Higher #oil prices helps them, but considering they have almost no state #debt and their entire monetary base is basically backed by #gold they'll be fine.

The #Ruble only tanked cause the world sees it as tied to oil prices only
Yes their economy is hurting like anybody else's but there's one thing the author forgets:

#Russians are poor as shiat.

I mean dirt poor. I've got a #Russian friend who i asked back around November last year "what's the average income around your area?"
He said "375-450 euro a month in my city, but i live in a region capital. In the villages around here it'd be half that".

The #Russia you know from movies? That's #Moscow and St. Petersburg basically. Everybody else in villages still have gardens cause they have to.
This can easily be seen by a simple calculation:

#Netherlands: 17,145,900 population, GDP (2019): 909,070,000,000.
#Russia: 145,952,618 population, GDP (2019): 1,699,877,000,000

Divide #GDP by Population and we get:

NL: $53,019.7 per capita
RU: $11,646.8

#NL/#RU = 4.55.
Now the question is: Could a #Russian do the same work as a Dutchie, if he has access to knowledge and capital?

If Yes, then there's a 4.55x growth potential in Russian GDP.

Or to bring it back; Compared to the #Netherlands, #Russia only utilizes 22% of its GDP potential.
BTW, for the #USA VS #Netherlands, that comes down to:

$21,427,700,000,000/331,570,258= $64,624

So we're 82% of the US.

Ours will come down so it's more like 3x then 4,5x - but still.

My point in all of this. Russia stands to lose a whole lot less. They have nothing already.

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More from @DesoGames

17 Oct
Alright so i'm about to go to bed, and i have a killer idea. Why don't i watch some looney tunes to make me feel better!

So i @YouTube one of my favorites... No full episode. I try another, none. Rabbit fire FROM 1951! Isn't on there.

@warnerbros fuck you guys, back to piracy.
Oh and no I'm not gonna get a fucking subscription to 50 streaming services either.

Not because I'm not willing to pay but because I'm a freaking economist!

You think i didn't notice the whole tech world moving to sub models?!

Easier to jack up the price during inflation.
Recurring subscription costs can be raised while ad revenue craters during hyperinflation (if you think ad budgets are the first to go now WHOO BOY wait till 2023).

And if people don't own their stuff, the need to continue to pay/rent stays there with higher prices.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
IT. IS. HERE. Article 2: Why i hate #Bitcoin and why #Tether will end up killing it.

desogames.com/why-i-hate-bit…

15,500+ words. Nearly 90,000 characters. And a decade of theorizing about Bitcoin, combined with the Ponzi Du Jour.

#BTC #Crypto #USD #Inflation #deflation #fraud
I'm really not going to short form explain this one. Simply because it's such comprehensive article. It is literally hours worth of reading time. Don't worry; i'll introduce a fix for that soon.

If you wanna read about tether alone; skip to about half way, until the first list.
As far as arguing about it goes; Gimme a day to recover. It's 5 am and i literally have a Gastroscopy in 4 hours where they shove a camera down my throat to see why my stomach hurts xD Still need sleep somewhere.

But my DMs remain open for contact! I'll get to it eventually.
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
It's here! The long awaited sequel;

The Definitive September #COMEX #Silver #Shadowcontracts thread!

The amount of Shadow contracts this month has surprised even me.

NONE of the numbers make sense anymore!

So the Theme of this month will Be;

AUDIT THE COMEX @CFTC!!! 1/z Image
Let's start with clarification.

#Shadowcontracts don't have to be delivered on the same day, though #Comex doesn't display those numbers exactly.

Within 24 or 48 hours is enough to not-make-sense in a #FUTURES market. What about contracts made 15 minutes before closing? 2/z
It makes NO sense that in a #FUTURES market, On Monday the 28th of September, 47 contracts where made that HAD TO BE delivered on September 29th.

That was the Final September delivery date. All September 20th contracts HAD TO BE DELIVERED BY THAT DATE.

Why not wait 1 day? 3/z
Read 34 tweets
29 Aug
We are nearly a month later and BOY IS IT WORSE then i thought.

The Definitive August #COMEX #Silver #Shadowcontracts thread!

Summarized; I know I'm right now. The patterns that emerged this month have been enlightening.

COMEX. Is. Dead.

Picture first explanation later! 1/y Image
I would highly recommend first reading the other thread. But just to summarize; #Shadowcontracts are the contracts that are created, then delivered, on the same day.

This means that open interest goes up by 1, then down by 1, meaning there's 1 delivery to 0 OI change. 2/y
So if open interest changes by -10, but there where 15 deliveries, there where 5 #shadowcontracts.

Open interest being below the number of deliveries isn't a problem, it should simply never be above it.

As shown in the picture, It adds up to quite a few ounces. 3/y
Read 33 tweets
26 Aug
ALRIGHT! FOLLOWER APPRECIATION TIME 🎉

Thank you all for listening/considering my words when i was still considered a nobody! The key to seeing what's coming is to be able to consider information on it's own merit. I learned this year how rare that ability is really is. 1/x
So as a thank you, I'm gonna go through my entire stock portfolio! All of my current positions and my sisters, with the reasons why.

It's not Advice, don't blame me if you invest and ride down with me. But it exposes you to my logic thinking at the least, a good deal at best 2/x
HOWEVER! Since i've run out of money (i know nobody with any kind of even decent money) i DO have an offer for anybody interested in riding a *really* good stock up with me. More about that later.

This'll be a LONG thread!(gimme time to build) Without tags just for you guys! 3/x
Read 26 tweets
6 Aug
ALRIGHT it's here! The definitive Thread about #COMEX #Silver #Shadowcontracts starting to appear in July.

Picture first, explanation below. It's cobbled together from daily screenshots from their site cmegroup.com/trading/metals… where you can check daily futures volume. 1/x
First off, small apology about missing a few days of final reports; i drew the short straw on long term #covid19 effects and it's been a rough year. Never the less it's accurate enough.

Let's start with the basic question: What do i mean by #silver or #gold #shadowcontracts? 2/x
By that i mean a contract for delivery on the #COMEX that is created - and delivered - on the same day. It's my explanation for why the open interest change doesn't line up with the deliveries.

I want to stress i don't know this, it's just the only logical explanation left. 3/x
Read 47 tweets

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