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13 Apr, 43 tweets, 29 min read
42/gpc #Masks
43/gpc Effectiveness of different #vaccines, & range of uncertainty (chart)
44/gpc This 🧵👇🏼is consistent with what I have said in my tweet 🧵☝🏼 since august 2020
45/gpc Incentivizing Covid Vaccine production, marketing & use of vaccines: From Mahalanobis type Planning to Mixed economy 👍🏼 (pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… ) Image
46/gpc #SciMe "Harvard research found many airports were not designed to mitigate airborne spread of respiratory pathogens. Though some airports have installed new/additional filtration systems, distancing, vigilance & other safety practices are crucial." nytimes.com/interactive/20…
47/gpc #COVID Helpful Hints for monitoring of those infected by #SARS #Corona #Virus 2 : 🧵
48/gpc Post #Vaccination #COVID follow-up research results: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internati…
49/gpc This study is just saying and/or confirming, what I have said in this thread, and repeated many times in different contexts & media, including in RBI & MOF online meetings: cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit…
50/gpc #Masks update hindustantimes.com/videos/coronav…
51/gpc Its all about the flow of virus (aerosol) from an affected person to another. If you are facing a little side ways the virus tends to flow away, if you are facing directly it tends to flw towards you.
52/gpc #Ventilation Remember the mothers saying to children 50 yrs ago (before pollution), " go out and play and get some fresh air."
53/gpc Besides air pollution, we also have to worry about pollen to aggravate respiratory problems
54/gpc #Vaccination #Covaxin
55/gpc Air (aerosol) transmission was proved in July 2020(this thread started in August), and 40% of transmission is silent (ie from asymptomatic carriers of corona virus) hindustantimes.com/india-news/str…
56/gpc And another article on same research: google.com/amp/s/indianex…
57/gpc #Vaccination is the only permanent solution for #COVID, and we may need a booster shot every year (to be safe from new mutations)
Information for those with mild COVID (even vaccinated folks could get it with a mutated variant) so take care
59/gpc A medicine for #Covid 🧵
60/gpc Some of the science behind ☝🏼thread is referenced in this👇🏼🧵
61/gpc Central Govt planning, procurement, distribution of #COVID vaccines for free vaccination in State health system(public good) coupled w freedom to hospitals/clinics, Cos, NGOs, to buy vaccines from producers & charge for #vaccination is best way for #India to speed up vaccs
62/gpc Simplified protocols for treatment of a new disease like #COVID, help not only the general public but also general practitioners & other doctors unfamiliar with such disease. They can help conserve & focus limited resources on where they are really needed/most effective
63/gpc (refn 61/gpc) #Free #Vaccination continues to be supplied by CG, through GOI Vaccination centers, to folks >45 yrs [ pib.gov.in/PressReleseDet… ]. It should be extended to everyone, over 18 yr-olds with #comorbidities, from June 1
64/gpc Covishield vaccine in UK shows 70% protection after 1st dose (+x days) and 85% protection after 2nd dose(+ x day's) . It shows almost 100% effectiveness against severe Covid infection & consequent death (as do all other vaccines). B1.167 👇🏼
65/gpc #Ventilation and/or #Airfilters indoors (please also read the next 2 tweets starting 👇🏼
66/gpc Epidemic precautions FY22 (1) #Vaccination, (2) #Masks, (3) #Ventilation, (4) #Distancing, (5) Quality #Air #filters for AC systems, (6) #Hand #washing, (7) #UV ceiling #lights. Crowded indoor spaces are most risky, uncrowded outdoors least risky. Touch ENT/M w clean hands
67/gpc #Vaccine #effectiveness against #severe #illness and #variants/mutations
68/gpc And if the room, hall, building is air conditioned, please make sure it has good #AirFilters. In addition, crowded rooms like bars, public bathrooms & small shops & restaurants should use UV ceiling lights (which can kill viruses). Get #vaccinated if U haven't yet.
69/gpc #COVID #Ventilation #Filters We can beat the SARS corona virus 2 & its mutations, if #Business, #NGOs, #Govts, #Public, incorporate all the lessons learnt, into our daily lives (the return will more than pay for extra costs involved)
70/gpc #Vaccine Protection against #COVD mutations & variants 🧵
71/gpc #Vaccination effectiveness based on research (#SciMe)
72/gpc #Scime #Vaccine effectiveness
73/gpc 🙏🏼 take #COVID precautions seriously: 🧵
74/gpc This👇🏼follows from test results that #Vaccination is >99% effective in protecting against severe illness which results in death. Insist that every one you meet is vaccinated! Boycott/censure people who refuse to get vaccinated
75/gpc #Vaccnation is 1st priority in FY21 [🙏🏼 see 69/gpc for FY21 ordering of Covid safety precautions]
76/gpc #COVAXIN trial results in black and white 🧵
77/gpc #SciMe Medical Science of higher #transmissibility of #Covid #Delta variant 🧵
78/gpc #Indian #Covid #vaccines: Will slow and steady win the #Covid #Vaccine race?
79/gpc #COVID #Delta Viral load #Mask (on nose)
80/gpc Pfizer vaccination efficacy drop over time:
81/gpc #Global #Pandemic #Crisis What #World & #India need(s) to do with respect to #Public #Health, instead of everyone pushing own ideological and political agenda(s).
82/gpc #Vaccination
83/gpc India ICMR Sero survey results
84/gpc Implications of #Indian #sero #survey, for undercounting of #Covid #Cases [Note that this👇🏼estimate, will be the denominator for calculating Covid fatality rate after adjusting for mis-classified deaths (ie Covid deaths attributed to other causes like lung collapse)] Image

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More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
28 Jul
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
Read 5 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
1 Jul
Who lost Afghanistan? (1) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did not want to invest in the Afghan army—and by the end of 2003, just 6,000 Afghan soldiers had been trained. " ...2/
2/afpak (2)Taliban fled across the border to Pakistan, where they regrouped, raised funds, recruited in madrasahs & trained with Pakistan’s security service, Inter-Services Intelligence. Many ISI officers had worked with Taliban leaders for decades & shared their worldview..3/
3/afpak Pakistan’s role turned out to be fatal. Even as USA prosecuted its war in Afghanistan, those it fought found refuge & training in cntry next door. But #Bush admin turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s machinations; it provided it $12 bil (>$6bi reimbursement for military ops)"
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Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
30 Jun
"We ❤️ #FAANG #monopolists " Beware #Goebbles says :" If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." (Hint: Count how many times we have heard this same #theme, in the same #media, by the same #authors)
2/goe #Economics101: If in an industry, u create a counter to an existing monopoly, u turn it into a duopoly, if u create 2nd counter it becomes an oligopoly. The first step in creating completion. The second step is to create a regulatory system that fosters/promotes competition
3/goe #RegulatoryEc The danger to society from #Asymmetric info & #moral hazard in #Finance was 10x that of goods monopolies, the danger from #SocialMedia & #E-com monopolies is 10x that of Financial collapse! Need 21st C regulations for latter! 🙏🏼don't make it a partisan issue
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
10 Jun
Econ101: Any market economist who has worked on developing countries knows about the difference between social and economic return to investment, & how government must act based on this difference: Govt must invest directly or give financial incentives to private investors
2/* (correction) ….difference between social and private return ...
3/scba Difference btwn social & private return has to b larger than cost of intervention, incl inefficiency induced by taxation & the administrative costs(+corruption) of intervention. Beware of political benefits being mis-represented as social benefits. Benefit/cost <0 is posbl
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
9 Jun
Our dual S-curve model of propagation of mutations(blue & orange) is right on track (see egrowfoundation.org/research/india… ) with an underestimate of ~ 2% for total cases (green; had warned of potential underestimate of up to 10%, due to slower slowdown than predicted by model):
2/scurve Corresponding curves for Madhya Pradesh, which was the furthest ahead in returning to normalcy (as of June 3)
3/scurve At the other end, Tamil Nadu is most distant (along with Assam) from normalization. Note that the blue curve(up to June3) was still on the rising part of the predicted curve (orange). Consequently total cases (green) are still some way from flattening out, in TN.
Read 5 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
30 Apr
Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases. dravirmani.blogspot.com/2021/04/indias…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper, egrowfoundation.org/research/effec…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
Read 4 tweets

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