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Nov 3, 2021 • 31 tweets • 27 min read
188/ns The urgent need for an Indian (conventionally armed) #Rocket #Force & associated #ISR to deter a decapitating strike by #PLARF 🧵
189/ns Step by step build up, to #Theaterization 🧵
190/ns #National #Security #Strategy: #India's upcoming #Rocket #Force; Background, current state & future prospects 👍🏼 thediplomat.com/2021/11/indias…
191/ns In the context of India's Northern border, a preemptive #rocket #force #attack (🧵👇🏼) could be unleashed by #PLA, if its border aggression fails, and #CCP leader, who initiated aggression, fears a humiliating domestic fallout.
192/ns #Salami #Slicing: India's experience of #PLA #Creeping #Acquisition shows, that pre-planned, well prepared and quick, #counter #slicing, is the best way to put the escalation decision, back on the initial aggressor: tnsr.org/2021/11/salami…
193/ns #National #Security & #Foreign #Policy: India's claims & the #MacMohan line
194/ns Over view of #Infrastructure in #Tibet and #Xinjiang:
195/ns India's Ballistic Missile Defense System making progress👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
196/ns When talking about #indigenization always remember the different stages from R&D to full working prototype to production. Remember mass production of high quality, fail safe, #weapons, is a challenge in itself, & cost efficiency requires minimum efficient scale(#MES) 🧵
197/ns The #QUAD countries must take this 👇🏼possibility into account in their futuristic #national #security #planning
198/ns Geography of #Changmo #valley and the #Gogra, #HotSprings area (explained by an expert @KesariDhwaj )
199/ns And the available options for defence
200/ns Power is always relative: One comparison here👇🏼 (Caution: my #VIPP index shows China's economic power is 4x India's and economic power is the foundation of the power pyramid on which military power is built, with diplomatic power on top of both)
201/ns closing the #conventional missile gap with #PLARF continues, with development of #Agni #Prime and #Pralay 👍🏼👏
202/ns Closing the drone gap with PRC/Chipak
203/ns This sums up #PLA strategy on Himalayan border. We have to prepare patiently & relentlessly to deter #PRC (#Chipak) aggression, which will occur whenever #Emperor11 sees an opportunity! #Multilevel, #Multilayered #Deterrence is the only path to peace with #PRC
204/ns #Aggressive intent and #strategy of the #PLA (It’s the 21st century (hi tech) version of 1960s aggression against India)🧵. Multi level, multilayered deterrence (L1 to L5). is one counter to this (as proposed in my thread x/ns).
205/ns To summarise 🧵, (1) China as th “near superpower”, has (or believes it has), #escalation #dominance, (2) India therefore has to develop capability to impose unacceptable costs on PRC for its aggression, at every level of escalation. 3) It can also, develop, jointly
206/ns (3) Develop, joint (with partners) ability, to defeat PLA at some level(s) of escalation (eg naval forces in IOR), at costs which are jointly bearable to partners. (4) Create winning coalition(s) to fight “Grey War,” launched by PRC against India & coalition partners.
206/ns Moving towards #Hard #Deterrence: "We will win," if war is thrust on us
207/ns #National #Security Speedily closing the #SRBM gap viz PLA rocket forces, to enhance the credibility of our #conventional #deterrence!
208/ns India’s #core national #interests: 1) Protecting our borders from 2 nuclear neighbours, who have displayed a pathological enmity towards us for 3/4th century. 2) Protecting Indian citizens from Jehadi terrorists who consider it their religious duty to fight Hindu Kafirs../
209/ns ..(3) Fast, inclusive economic growth, which raises the welfare of all our citizens to the top quartile of all countries, and eliminates the “threat of use of force” (military, social, economic) by any cntry, however large or powerful it is =>#National #Security #Doctrine
210/ns In 21st C “#Cyberattack is war by other means” (In 19th C: “Diplomacy was war by other means” ). Its just one element of the toolkit of #GreyWar. 🧵
211/ns In my view, An Indo-US version of Pine Gap, would increase India's hard deterrence viz an aggressive #PLA rocket force. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap
212/ns 👍🏼👏🏽EOS-04 is critical to detecting a surprise missile attack by PLA rocket forces under cover of darkness or clouds. First line of defence. But it wouldn’t hurt to have a back up arrangement with a partner, in case PLA tires to disable or destroy EOS, prior to an attack!
213/ns Russian threat to Ukraine, reaction of EU Govts & anti-India reaction of foreign experts, confirms correctness of our approach: 1)Fast economic growth, & econ integration with developed democracies, (2) Atman Nirbharta in defence & arms production, with partners help
214/ns #China had no compunctions in setting up #US intelligence stations to monitor #USSR nuclear tests (🧵) why are we so squeamish about returning the favour to #PRC, to monitor their missile tests/activities! @rajnathsingh
215/ns The Russian Invasion of Ukraine makes it imperative to immediately start detailed discussion on the above (214/ns) suggestion @nsa @PMOIndia; @DrSJaishankar #HighTech #Decoupling & #Partial #Economic #Decoupling is urgently required!
216/ns #India must prepare for a full scale attack by Xi's #PLA within the next 3 years, possibly at the time of next general elections or after. Expect it to be aided and abetted by the #IRP (& Russia strictly neutral)
217/ns We also need to accelerate the deployment of Agni 5, the development of Agni 6, & SLBMs with 5000km range! Will any of our #Partners help? "Actions speak louder than words" "Empty vessels make the most sound."

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More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 24
Better late than never. We all make mistakes. The critical test will be how German policy on #China changes (not Russia policy, which is fairly predictable)
2/eu Same test for EU, 👇🏽is predictable
3/eu The lesson is applicable to India-China! Remember Military strength requires both funds and Partnerships (to get technology & advanced equipment at lowest cost)
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Feb 24
@Special relationship" is a #delusion that Indians must #shun if they are to defend their Nation against Autocratic nations which have been looking for a way to destroy them for 75 years
Make no mistake, Putin's Damocles sword is now hanging over India's head. We don't have the luxury of talking🤐, we have to plan, decide, and act!
There are only "overlapping interests," between any two countries; When the overlap gets smaller & smaller, expect foreign policies to change; don't #delude yourself about friendship, Bhai Bhai & Jigri Dosti
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Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 23
#PIP says: “#FOE for media includes, the freedom to censor.”
#PIP says: “The fourth estate is a guarantor of our freedom and democracy, believe it or not”
3/foe And #FOE in #US also means the freedom to censor/self-censor. So Indian media meets the highest quality standards in the World 😇
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Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 22
True, but there is a fine line between friendly advice and #Information #Warfare. My friends advise me privately and politely, not criticise me on social media, or give me advice on TV interviews! Those who did the latter are no longer my friends 🤡.
#PIP says: “We 😍🥰😘🐕🐩🦮”
3/pip #PIP: “The concept of “Friendship” in IR has been the bane of Indian foreign policy; Indians get emotionally committed to it, while great powers use it as an instrument of moral/intellectual coercion!” Asymmetric tests of “logical consistency” are another tool of coercion
Read 11 tweets
Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Feb 21
#Hypocrisy is the best policy in a #unipolar #world, but it wont work in the “multipolar transition” to a “#Tripolar #World with a #multipolar rim”!
The “#Bipolar #World with a #Multipolar #Rim,” is already here. The Russian conflict with Ukraine, wont change this. #High #Tech #Decoupling & #partial #economic #decoupling from China is a necessary for survival of free market, open democracies.
2/hwo The #Hypocritical #World #Order(#HWO): “The very people who want pragmatism on #Afghanistan, don’t want pragmatism on #Myanmar”
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Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Jan 24
Which is the greater military power: #PRC with 60,000 troops massed on India’s border(for ~2 years) or #RF with 100,000 troops massed on Ukraine border(for ~ 2 months)?
2/rus #Russian massing of troops around Ukraine is not just a message to #USA and #Europe, but also to #China and #India, not to write off its Military power & ability to use it; even though Russia’s economic power is now much less than that of USA, EU, China, India.🧐🤔
3/rus The #Russian’s have learned from the #PRC aggression against India in 2020, which rapidly lost credibility after Galwan. They have done everything to ensure that the threat of invasion is credible enough to achieve their coercive objectives without fighting.
Read 57 tweets

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