On sidelines and in society, they are discussing that a war may start in #Ukraine, and the #Fed will raise rates ahead of time. How will this end for the markets?
Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX
Thread 🧵👇
Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX
Thread 🧵👇
Judging by experience of falls of past years, Russian market may fall by another 30% -50% from current levels.
• 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
• 2014 - by 50%
• 2020 - by 50%
Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
2/
• 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
• 2014 - by 50%
• 2020 - by 50%
Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
2/
Growth of quotations this week is unlikely:
• Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).
💵 Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
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• Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).
💵 Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
3/
💶 Thursday: #ECB meeting. #EU economy is used to cheap money and giving up on it can become difficult.
🪵 Friday. Bank of Russia is likely to raise rate by 100 bp.
🪖 Negative from the front #Russia - #Ukraine - #NATO
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🪵 Friday. Bank of Russia is likely to raise rate by 100 bp.
🪖 Negative from the front #Russia - #Ukraine - #NATO
4/
What will be adjusted the most?
🎯 Targets for sanctions:
$TCSG, $AFLT, $MOEX, $SBER
💸 Due to the growth of the FRS rate and the slowdown in the economy:
$MTLR, $NLMK, $MMK $MAGN, $SVST $CHMF and others, Aeroflot
⚓️ Overcredited companies:
#Aeroflot, #Mechel
5/
🎯 Targets for sanctions:
$TCSG, $AFLT, $MOEX, $SBER
💸 Due to the growth of the FRS rate and the slowdown in the economy:
$MTLR, $NLMK, $MMK $MAGN, $SVST $CHMF and others, Aeroflot
⚓️ Overcredited companies:
#Aeroflot, #Mechel
5/
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