Thread by @InsightGL

1️⃣
-#UkraineUnderAttack a #Thread
-#Russian ground forces have bogged down outside #Ukrainian #Kharkiv & #Kyiv
-Why mighty #Russia struggling in front of relatively weaker #Ukraine
-All experts went wrong in their assessment that Ukraine will fall in 3-4 days
-An assessment

2️⃣
-1st & foremost after initial 1-2 days #Russia failed to establish air superiority & air support to ground forces
-Battle for Antonov Apt 10km NW of #Kyiv was failure
-Russia took 2 days to capture
-18 IL-76 fm Russian Pskov Airport had to go back since airfield was damaged

3️⃣
-Russia suffering large aircraft & helo losses(31 & 30) in 1 week
-Russia doesn't hv even localized air superiority
-Aircraft & helo losses unsustainable
-Attack aircraft & helo unable to provide close air support to mechanized forces
-Ukraine using UAVs inflicted huge damage

4️⃣
-Ltd effectiveness of #Russian stand-off weapons
-Launched~100 cruise & ballistic missiles
-75 bombers on 1st night of #UkraineConflict against govt & #military tgts
-Some hits, mostly ineffective
-#Ukrainian systems are still running
-Strikes are not concentrated & decreased

5️⃣
-#Russian #cyberattacks V ltd & didn't support air-superiority objective
-#Ukrainian #military & civilian C2 intact, no disruption of air defences
-Poor usage of electronic attack vehicles deployed at border
-Electromagnetic spectrum, air & gd-based radars, sat nav all intact

6️⃣
-Ltd destruction of #Ukrainian fighters & airfields
-Ukrainian #AirForce continues to operate
-Poor integration of battlefield intelligence this unable to attacks on mobile targets, specifically S-300 SAM, remain a threat to #Russian aircraft

#russiansoldiers @LevinaNeythiri

7️⃣
-#Russian #navy achieved sea control in N #BlackSea(Sevastopol- S #Ukrainian & Sea of Azov)
-2 amphibious gps. 1 conducted amphibious landing W of Mariupol & attacked
-2nd standing by for amphibious landing in Odesa
-#Turkey can block entry of Russian warships via Dardanelles

8️⃣
-#Putin ordered #Russia’s #nuclear forces on special combat duty
-But no strategic bombers out of hangars & patrolling
-Ballistic missile submarines not at sea patrol
-Road-mobile missiles remain in garrison shelters
-Nuclear card played to divide #NATO ❓

@subnut @amulkapoor

9️⃣
-#Russian advances slowed due strong #Ukrainian resistance, mobility & logistics
-I fear more indiscriminate aerial bombing & artillery usage in frustration
-#Russia has overwhelming combat power advantages
-Once Russia goes off road Ukrainian drones & teams lose advantage

🇮🇳
-This week will is v crucial to see if #Kyiv falls
-#Russia is learning fast from it's mistakes & will try to overcome them
-Once greater air support & better logistics in place Russia will be on top of game
-There are great lessons for #IndianArmy #IndianNavy #IndianAirForce