Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jun 1 66 tweets 48 min read
Thread: 1 June 2022: Day 98 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Kalush Orchestra, the rap-folk band that won Eurovision for #Ukraine, has sold the Eurovision trophy at auction for $900,000 in order to buy drones (the PD-2 unmanned aerial system) for the country's war effort against the #Russian invaders. nypost.com/2022/05/30/eur…
Vladimir Shamanov on the "superiority" of #Russia's army; intentions with Poland, Baltics, Romania; taking 5 to 10 years to fully demilitarized and denazify #Ukraine, leveling the country if need be and trying its officials and journalists at a "Nuremberg"
#Russia controls probably three-quarters of Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Oblast, but the progress has been slow and at a grinding cost - and the town is hardly the end-point of what Moscow needs even to meet its minimal objectives in the Donbas.
#Turkey's ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote - or at any rate, signed - an article in the Economist yesterday about #Finland and #Sweden entering #NATO
Some of #Russia's own operatives have made public statements about how slowly things are moving around Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Oblast of eastern #Ukraine.
Reports on #Russia's activities through its "Wagner" unit in #Mozambique
Bizarre posture from the #US to claim it has no view or role in the dispute between #Turkey and #Sweden/#Finland over #NATO accession, as if the US is not the guarantor state for all of them and the whole concept of NATO.
Ben Atkin comes off here - no doubt authentically - as cretinous. Just very strange that the Times ran with this.
Seems the #US will be sending HIMARS to #Ukraine, and soon, but will be holding back the long-range ammunition. As with everything, the Biden people are slow and half-hearted, have to be ground down into doing every step, rather than throwing in everything
#pt: The last case was the Harpoon missiles, which the #US had declared an impossibility in sending to #Ukraine, then months later - after thousands more people were needlessly killed and wounded - it turned out that, in fact, they could
Alina Koreniuk, a #Ukrainian refugee in #Britain, saw her property looted by the #Russians displayed on one of their tanks in Popasna, in the Luhansk Oblast. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
There will be no forgiveness for #Russia for decades after this from #Ukrainians, whatever their political and identitarian commitments were before the invasion.
Almost surely the reverse is true: the #Baltics will not look to #France and #Germany for leadership, let alone protection. It's more clear than ever the #US is indispensable to European security.
Ironically, Macron refusing to join in properly with the US-led effort to protect #Ukraine - trying to position himself as intermediary with #Russia - has only underlined how completely incapable France or the other West European states are on security.
#Russia's "Wagner" unit and Moscow's friendly junta in #Mali massacred hundreds of people over four days in the town of Moura in March 2022.
Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, says "the so-called Western partners of the Kiev regime" are taking advantage of things, especially #Poland, which is "already moving towards actions to seize western Ukrainian territories" interfax.ru/world/843864
In #Germany, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the deputy of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), has called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to deliver the promised weapons and vehicles to #Ukraine as quickly as possible.
"Some #OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending #Russia's participation in an oil-production deal as Western sanctions and a partial European ban begin to undercut Moscow’s ability to pump more, OPEC delegates said." wsj.com/articles/opec-…
#Ukraine's President Zelensky went on Newsmax - a good move since this is an audience that needs to hear from him - but refuses to go along with their pro-Trump narrative, says the support for Ukraine comes from the American people and their values
#Putin's former placeholder president Dmitry Medvedev claimed on Telegram Western sanctions "are directed precisely against the Russian people", and, notably, that the West wants to "decimate the Russian Orthodox Church". tass.com/world/1458507
Not much subtlety from #Russia about its intention to annex the occupied areas of #Ukraine in the southeast
An intercept shows a #Russian soldier in Donetsk saying 200 of 600 men refused orders from Gen. Valeriy Solodchuk, the commander of the 36th Army, resulting in an armed standoff. "We almost shot each other, for fuck's sake. He got on his bobik and left" businessinsider.com/russian-troops…
An important temperature test of the low morale and indiscipline of the #Russian army, even at this moment when the war in #Ukraine is going better for them than at any point since the onset of the invasion.
Quite, quite mad: very agitated commentator on #Russia's state television saying Moscow should approach the not-war in #Ukraine by reminding the #US that Russia could destroy the US with four missiles. Then moves on to how many Ukrainians need eliminating.
#China has begun sending bauxite to #Russia, an important component for the production of aluminium. Russia's supplies from #Ukraine's aluminium plant in Nikolaev (Mykolaiv) have obviously stopped, and #Australia's sanctions have blocked its exports. kommersant.ru/doc/5381032
#Australia has done its part in the Alliance mission in #Ukraine, applying meaningful sanctions and supplying weapons to turn back #Russia's invasion
President #Biden's op-ed in the NYT says he "will not pressure #Ukraine "to make any territorial concessions" to #Russia, and intends to bolster Kiev so it can be in the best position to negotiate an end to this. Reassures Putin his ouster is not US policy nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opi…
#pt: Biden: "Russia's occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible. Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale ... would entail severe consequences."

The right message.
#Britain's intel report this morning: #Russia controls at least half of Severodonetsk, getting nearer to the town centre, while continuing to launch long-range missiles, especially at #Ukraine's Danube ports, which are not blockaded like the Black Sea
#EU continues its foot-dragging on #Ukraine's membership, despite assurances it would be fast-tracked
#Ukraine Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych makes clear that his country needs the MLRS from the #US (and would have been helped by the Gepards from #Germany) b/c the primary problem is a need to accurately target #Russia's artillery
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has announced the "liberation" Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Oblast of eastern #Ukraine. The Russians will likely capture the town soon, but they have not yet.
#Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged that IRIS-T short to medium range surface-to-air missile systems will be delivered to #Ukraine ... believe it once seen.
#Algeria - where the regime was put together by the KGB and rules in the Soviet spirit - is clearly a state #Russia can call on to present an image of not being isolated. What Algiers asks for in return, perhaps vis-à-vis Morocco, is something to watch.
#Russia's client in #Mali, as in Syria previously, proving very capable at inflicting indiscriminate cruelty on civilians, and pretty much hopeless against jihadists.
Speaking to MPs from his AK Party, #Turkey's ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan said an operation would begin in #Syria to clear the #SDF/#PKK from Manbij and Tel Rifaat. "Let's see who supports these legitimate steps by Turkey and who hinders them", said Erdogan. al-monitor.com/originals/2022…
Erdogan spoke about this with Putin on 30 May, not that there is anything Russia can or will do to stop him, and is clearly trying to tie it into the discussions about Turkey not vetoing Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
#Denmark voted almost exactly 70% in a referendum to drop their opt-out from #EU military structures. The Danish Prime Minister said this is "a very important signal", and in its way it is, but as ever, #NATO matters for security and the EU does not. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
The Roman Catholic Pope drawing attention to the naval blockade on #Ukraine, the lifting of which is possibly the most important immediate issue, though Francis once again refused to name #Russia as the criminal aggressor in this matter.
Secretary of #Russia's Security Council Nikolai Patrushev explains the "Anglo-Saxon" (particularly British) plot against his country, the Clinton/Rockefeller/Soros origins of the coronavirus, the long war with Nazism in Ukraine demanded by History, etc. aif.ru/politics/world…
Patrushev says Russia has only ever supported sovereignty, even of Poland! And Finland should be grateful the Soviets let them emerge in 1945, rather than punishing for taking the German side. (Stalin didn't do it because he feared the Finns after 1939-40)
Terrible stories from Kharkiv of the abducted Ukrainians deported to Russia
The true scale of the devastation in Mariupol, human and material, will be known only once the Russians are gone
#pt: "An adviser to the Ukrainian mayor [of #Mariupol] estimated that 22,000 died in the two months of fighting. However, a person among several coordinating burials in the city ... said they believed the total was closer to 50,000." theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
#Ukraine's President Zelensky took part in the first meeting of the Polish-Ukrainian intergovernmental consultations in Kiev on 1 June. This format will be overseen by Ukraine's PM Denys Shmyhal and #Poland's PM Mateusz Morawiecki.
Ukrainian soldier in Donetsk says there are four men left in his unit that started with sixty
#Switzerland citing its neutrality doctrine to explain blocking #Denmark sending vehicles to #Ukraine
Not a great sign. Looks like the #US slow-rolling the implementation of a policy already too-long delayed.
#Hungary has blocked the sixth round of #EU sanctions on #Russia, demanding that the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, who has blessed the war on #Ukraine as a holy cause, be removed from the sanctions list. aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/1/…
Russian rock-star Yury Shevchuk, who has been very public in opposing Putin's war on Ukraine, says his group, DDT, has been forced to postpone its 40th anniversary concert in Moscow, set to take place on 10 June, until 2023, bc of his statements on the war meduza.io/news/2022/06/0…
A member of #Russia's "Wagner" unit on the day the invasion began: "there will be no #Ukraine [by] the end of the week", and confirms that this Nazi-dominated outfit was sent to Kiev to kill President Zelensky aijac.org.au/fresh-air/russ…
Pictures of the terrible damage in Lyman, in the Donetsk Oblast, not all of it from the Russians; there have been Ukrainian counter-attacks, too.
#Ukraine's President Zelensky speaks to Ukrainian children who have been forced to take shelter in #Poland. This is a temporary situation, says Zelensky: these are Ukraine's future and it will be a great day when they can return home; everything is being done to hasten this.
With concentrated firepower and shorter supply-lines, #Russia making plodding progress in east #Ukraine, but still no air superiority and the same problems remain, inc overcentralised command structure (Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov not even seen for two weeks). nytimes.com/2022/05/31/us/…
#pt: There was no way the #Russians could refit and refurbish for the eastern #Ukraine offensive after being battered around Kiev, but the problems are much more fundamental, particularly the Sovietized command structure. The Ukrainians have taken on Western training very well.
The #US is planning to send #Ukraine MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles, which are about double the strength of the payloads carried by the Turkish TB-2 Bayraktars. reuters.com/business/aeros…
Speaking from Estonia, #US CENTCOM Commander General Paul Nakasone tells @SkyNews that the Americans have, as part of the support to #Ukraine, conducted offensive cyber hacking operations against #Russia. This is a first public confirmation. news.sky.com/story/us-milit…
The #US is working to get temporary storage containers for grain into #Ukraine as a stopgap measure to ease the crisis caused by #Russia's naval blockade in the Black Sea. Would allow Kiev to load grain onto trucks as the US looks to open overland routes. edition.cnn.com/2022/06/01/pol…
#Britain is has asked the #US to sign-off on sending US-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which can fire up to fifty miles, to #Ukraine. US formal approval is needed. Biden near-certainly will. US has announced plans to send similar weapons. politico.com/news/2022/06/0…

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More from @KyleWOrton

May 31
Thread: 31 May 2022: Day 97 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Interesting on the likely relative rise of #Russia's industrial espionage in #Japan, when compared to #China, because of the sanctions the Japanese have placed on Russia. In absolute terms, the Chinese espionage is still massive, of course.
Read 9 tweets
May 30
Thread: 30 May 2022: Day 96 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Great piece on the #KGB's reconstitution in #Russia in all-but name since the end of the Cold War, and the way this paradigm of a "counterintelligence state" undid #Putin in #Ukraine against Western intelligence systems that have absorbed new techniques. rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Offsetting the hysteria since 2016 about #Russia's government and watching the obvious failures in #Ukraine has led to some bias for the incompetence explanation over malevolence. But the malevolence really is there, much of it aimed at Russians.
Read 45 tweets
May 29
Thread: 28 May 2022: Day 94 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Something for those who insist #Russia has narrowly limited aims in the Donbas and Ukraine
Read 11 tweets
May 28
Thread: 27 May 2022: Day 93 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The faction of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that had remained under the Moscow patriarchate severed those links on 27 May since Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill failed to condemn the "aggression" and had no "words for the suffering Ukrainian people". news.yahoo.com/russia-pounds-…
#Britain's intelligence report says #Russia has probably captured Lyman in the Donetsk Oblast and with it rail links and a better chance of crossing the river, though the focus likely to be 25 miles to the east around Severodonetsk in the coming days.
Read 15 tweets
May 26
Mark Lane, who wrote the first of the Kennedy assassination conspiracy theory books, was in contact with the KGB, through an officer at the UN delegation, Boris Orekhov. The CIA was told of this by an informant (SHAMROCK) in the KGB itself. eu.usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
This occurred in a context where the CIA counterintelligence chief James Angleton thought, encouraged in this belief by Anatoly Golitsyn, that a lot of the Soviet defectors and sources were dangles, including SHAMROCK and (most (in)famously) Yuri Nosenko.
The Nosenko case remains very interesting. The CIA came to believe he was a genuine defector - and Angleton's "mishandling" of him was the proximate cause of his downfall at the Agency - and the KGB files are suggestive along the same lines. BUT ...
Read 7 tweets
May 25
Thread: 25 May 2022: Day 91 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, says "Either this [war in #Ukraine] ends badly for all humanity, or we win. There's no third option." #Russians to celebrate this "brave new world" where their children can't study in the West: "you ought to be rejoicing".
Difficult to feel sorry for Yevgeny Primakov, but heading up a "Russian soft power" organisation is a tough gig right now
Read 42 tweets

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