Thread by @ChainLogAnalyst

Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.

Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today

Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market

Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready

🤓🧵

#CPI prints:

#UK YoY
Actual
9.4%
Forecast
9.3%
Previous
9.1%

#UK MoM
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
0.7%

#Canada YoY
Actual
8.1%
Forecast
8.4%
Previous
7.7%

#Canada MoM
Actual
0.7%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
1.4%

Let's unpack it briefly

With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high

Same goes for #Canada on the #YoY side with a #MoM momentum ranging between 0.6 and 1.4% in the last 6 months.

#Uk managed to arrive to a whopping 2.5% #MoM in May for the April measurements

U.S. MBA 30-Year #Mortgage #Rate
Actual
5.82%
Previous
5.74%

Still increasing, ask why

U.S. MBA #Mortgage #Applications WoW
Actual
-6.3%
Previous
-1.7%

Seems a slowdown is course, I'm almost tired of saying it

U.S. #Mortgage Market #Index
Actual
281.1
Previous
300.0

The Market Index covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages, all adjustable-rate mortgages, whether for a purchase or to refinance

MBA #Purchase #Index
Actual
208.0
Previous
224.3

The #Purchase #Index includes all #mortgages #applications for the purchase of a single-family #home. It covers the entire #market, both conventional and #government #loans, and all products. The Purchase Index has proven to be a reliable indicator of impending #home #sales.

U.S. #Existing #Home #Sales #MoM
Actual
655.7
Previous
685.3

#Existing #Home #Sales measures the change in the number of existing (not new) residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. #housing #market and is a #key #indicator of overall #economic #strength.

A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the #USD, while a lower than expected number as negative

U.S. #Mortgage #Refinance #Index
Actual
655.7
Previous
685.3

The Refinance Index covers all mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage. It is the best overall gauge of mortgage refinancing activity. The Refinance Index includes conventional and government refinances

regardless of product (FRM or ARM) or #coupon rate refinanced into or out of. Seasonal factors are less significant in #refinances than in #home #sales, however holiday effects are considerable.

Let alone the slowly shrinking of oil supply, too much to watch for and write on, and not enought space

Now that you know all of that, can you see some nasty green prints?

They probably flew away to #recession island

And this is somewhat only the beginning.

#FOMC meeting at the end of the month would be another important moment the #markets are waiting for

If everything goes as expected, and what the market has already priced in doesn't change, i.e. #rate #hikes, #commodities situation, #central #banks #monetary #policies from #EU and #Japan and so on, the market will still tank a little at the end of the month, but not too much

Probably one or two days after it anyway, since... well you'll see yourself

You'll say why bro?

Glad you asked, I was not expecting this question at all

Cause even if the market has priced it all in #cost of #capital on the rise is something that weight strongly on #companies

Some #investor may need to to make some adjustments on their #strategies, cause the overall weight could be more than expected due to the intricacies of #financial #markets

Anyway, I heard voices that the #FED will take a pause until september from that meeting on. (can't find any news on the internet, but the source is reliable, anyway take it with a pinch of salt)

In that case, with the FED out of the way, #markets could have their #rally

Let's see.

That's it for today. Like RT comments to make so twitter will share all this things to more people, it's #free and kind of you

thank you very much guys and girls

see you next time

Cheers!