1) So, I'm not going to try livetweeting the transcript Feinstein's office released. She's a swamp monster of the highest order, one of the most blatantly corrupt members of Congress (see my Better Know a Democrat thread on her), and Iran is more interesting.
2) Plus that whole transcript deal looks like a shitshow that will take a few days to work out. I'll wait kthx.
3) ANYWAYS, here's this
4) Remember, there's two tiers of banks in Iran. Big central bank-backed banks, and smaller private and IRGC banks which are basically ponzi schemes, vehicles for money laundering.
5) Protestors have been burning the IRGC banks. Mostly symbolic, but shows they know the right targets. The big central-backed banks, though, they're the achilles heel of Iran's whole economy
6) For years the big banks have been stable but run on a two-tier system. If you're poor you get small loans with really shitty interest rates. 30-ish percent.
7) If you're a politically connected or a senior regime official? You take out a huge loan with a building worth 10% of that as collateral, pay a kickback to the banker, and not pay it back. Or just take a loan to build a factory and not pay it back OR build a factory.
8) So, as I said earlier, the banks are broke, they only have a fraction of the cash on hand that they should, and now strikes are starting and people need the money they were saving at those banks.
9) The linked tweet? 6 major banks, rich people are withdrawing their money and divesting themselves of what I assume was meant to be bank bonds/certificates of deposit
10) Soon, very soon, middle and lower class people are going to need to withdraw their money too. When they can't, panic ensues.
11) The banks being broke means the whole house of cards collapses, soldiers and security forces alike will have lost all of their money, and there is one target for their fury: the regime.
12) Now, TO THE ACTUAL POINT! Why would the protestors do this to themselves? Why go for an economic collapse to drive the regime out of power?
13) Because this will be a bloodless coup. No civil war. The reason this economic collapse is possible is because the regime robbed Iran blind, isolated Iran from the world with a nuclear and ballistic program and by sponsoring terrorists
14) Rob the Mullahs and the government of their economy, and they cant pay security forces. Tell the security forces they can come over and not be killed, and most if not all of them will abandon the regime.
15) Once the regime falls, the international community steps in. Fuck, let China and Russia lead the way in investing in the region if they want. So long as the people choose their new government, using the system they have in place minus the religious theocracy, its all good.
16) Billions, probably several hundred billion dollars will flood into the economy to invest in a young, educated workforce located right on top of a trade nexus.
17) There might possibly be some short term pain, but airdrop some aid and investments to get the people working and thriving, and they'll be back on top in no time. Far easier for it to be this route than civil war.
18) And the 4D chess bit? Lets say people claim, oh, this was the SAUDIS doing, this was Trump and the CIA, rob allllll the credit from the Iranian people who are dying in the streets and in prisons.
19) What they're really saying is, a brutal terrorist funding destabilizing murderous regime was deposed not by a brutal civil war with a no fly zone and a long bloody proxy war
20) But by supporting the protesters, letting Iran's corruption collapse in on itself, and then lifting the people out of poverty and giving them the choice to be free.
21) So, a fuckton better than anything Obama or Hillary or Bush or Bill or other Bush ever did for the region. /end
