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Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
, 4 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
With the #Afrin deal coming to a near end, the #Kurds is al-Hasaka may no longer be fit as "best #USA partners" in #Syria. However, the #USA occupation forces will find another partner to stay in the Levant, the most important presence for these forces +
Because #USA protects an #ISIS enclave in north-east #Syria, #ISIS becomes a necessary element to justify the #USA presence and to wave it in the face of #Iraq . US is pushing #NATO into #Iraq so the US won't look alone in Mesopotamia and the Levant.
As the #USA insists in occupying #Syria and in staying in #Iraq, their forceful presence will be a negative element in PM Haidar Abadi's electoral campaign. #Iran won't accept NATO's presence in #Iraq and #Syria (USA).
News from #Iraq that @NATO has the intention to build a military base in #Iraq. If PM Haidar Abadi allowed it, it is going to be a very hot elections. That per se could be enough to wipe away all of Abadi's achievements (ISIS, Kurds).
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#Afrin #Kurds #USA #Syria #ISIS #Iraq #NATO #Iran

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Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+
No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ
Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.
Read 6 tweets
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I can only see positiveness in the expansion of al-Qaeda in #Syria. The more cities and villages it controls, the faster it will lose.

#AQ in Syria is trying to earn the heart and minds of the locals but it is trying to full up their pockets. This group has learned nothing.
Today I am very confident & much more positive that #Turkey will not occupy north of #Syria and will not stay in the territory it occupies today for ever.

@RT_Erdogan is confirming his strategic relationship with #Russia & #Iran is more precious than #USA
#AQ was planning long ago to expand its control. #Turkey rejected Joulani's wishes for very long. By accepting or closing an eye on the ex-#ISIS Emir, i.e. Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, #Turkey has found the best way to liberate itself from al-Qaeda's burden.
Read 4 tweets
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Hay'yan, Anadan & Haritan under Jihadists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the ex #ISIS officer, the ex-al Qaeda in the Levant and the actual leader of a large number of foreign fighters.

Joulani is taking position opposite #SAA.

google.com/maps/place/Hra…
Rural and the city of #Idlib, the rural area of #idlib, #Aleppo & #Hama are under Jihadists control. Is it time for the Syrian army, supported by #Russia to stop the jihadists advance if #Turkey is incapable of doing the job it has promised at #Astana?

#Turkey is embarrassed by Jihadists overwhelming control of most of the #Astana area of control. Joulani is forcing his place on #Ankara unless the Turkish army moves in to defeat him, or to steps aside and allows the #Syrian army to do the job.
Read 6 tweets

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#Syria: for over two years the people of Maarat al-Numan have protested continuously against Jabhat al-Nusra (& synonyms #JFS, #HTS).

Now the city together with the whole Jabal al-Zawiya region of #Idlib are freed of jihadists, thanks to local #FSA & #JTS
#Syria: as #JTS and #FSA forces are also advancing around Atarib (W #Aleppo) and Maarrat al-Misrin #HTS is at risk of being split into two separate pockets. One east of the M5 highway and the other in the region between #Idlib city and the #Turkey border
#Syria: meanwhile #HTS is trying to counter the rebel offensive throughout "greater" #Idlib by attacking the town of Batabo, located just west of Atarib
Read 6 tweets
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#Afrin Offensive about to oppose:
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)
#Afrin Offensive: following weeks of #TSK reinforcements near border with #Syria but also in Syria itself (N. #Aleppo & N. #Idlib), #FSA-led National Army started also to mobilize. Multiple convoys moving.
#Pt. National Army (incl. #FSA 23rd Division) preparing for #Afrin Offensive (#AfrinOp) near border with #Turkey.
Read 243 tweets

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