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#Iraq: Unofficial election results show big loss for SOL of former PM Maliki. Also lost big time is al-Hikma of S. Ammar al-Hakim. Sadr Movement’s alliance strategy succeeded in adding more gains to those guaranteed by traditional loyalty. (1)
PM Abadi is a close winner, thanks to incumbency factor, use of gov. resources, & alliance wiyh big fish. But still, nowhere near how Maliki performed with same advantages in 2014. PM Abadi will need to make very painful compromises to secure 2nd term. (2)
The Fath (PMFs) coalition performed as expected. Popularity acquired by fighting against ISIS paid off very handsomely. Along with the Sadr Movement, they will have a special seat at the negotiation table. (3)
In the past, some US-Iran understanding helped PM candidates with one foot in each camp. This is going to be a thing from the past, in loght of recent #IranDeal dispute. #Iran & US are most likely going to play a zero-sum game, which will make PM Abadi in a hard situation. (4)
As expected, Former PM Iyad Allawi’s coalition did so poorly he reportedly called for canceling the election results. It’s time Dr. Allawi realized that he needs to spend some time in #Iraq to gain voter support. (5)
#Kurdish parties are exchanging various accusations, with most of the blame going in the direction of the #PUK of Late President Talabani. Several Kurdish parties are not accepting the results. (6)
#pt., intra-Kurdish dispute will complicate their task in securing a collective advantage during the post-election negotiations, & if no reconciliation occurs soon, may force some parties into non-Kirdish alliances. (7)
#Kirkuk vote will need special attention. Results are alreadi in doubt with accusations by Arabs & Turkomans that transparency level is not acceptable & IHEC is not in full control of process. (8)
#Sunni blocks are fragmented more than ever. We shall see if they can pull together and form a large front based on mutual interests. (9)
One big preliminary news in the #Iraqielection2018 is PM Abadi’s coalition win in #Nineveh (Mosul) Province. This is historic, if it holds. Nujaifis coalition is coming second. (10)
Also very important is PM Abadi’s coalition gaining seats in #Anbar. This is part of the post-ISIS political reality. Many citizens in formerly ISIS-controlled areas are finding more common ground with Federal Govt than with their local political class. (11)
Low turn out (44%) is the main headline. Lowest in the past was more than 60%. But still, we should not discount the number of votes cast, more than 10 million Iraqis cast their votes. (12)
Most important reasons for low turn out: (a) no inspiring candidates/lists to encourage high voter turn out. The few good candidates were hurt by being in mostly corrupt lists, or good lists have been spoiled by including some really corrupt candidates. (13)
Most important reasons for low turn out: (b) voters had no chance to punish any parties/ coalitions, or try new ones. All coalitions with realistic chance to gain seats have been in govt. and all will be part of the new one. Sitting home was only option to protest. (14)
Most important reasons for low turn out: (c) despite the acceptable level of free elections, #Iraq is using a really corrupt elections law, written by, & for the ruling class — also, no one can honestly say the #IHEC is competent & impartial. (15)
However, this is all good. #Iraq is a democratizing country (not a democracy). All this is normal & necessary to keep the process moving along. Citizens in most countries in the region will spend a lifetime dreaming to cast a vote. (16)
The Sadr Movement coalition, which is running first in the #IraqElections2018 results so far, has 2 Prime Minister nominates: Sadrist Governor Ali Dawwai & Dr. Raed Fahmi, head of the Iraqi Comminist Party. (17)
The Communist Party did not do well in past elections. Running in the large Sadr Movement coalition, will give them a handsome number of seats in the coming parliament. (18)
Updated numbers show different configuration. PM Abadi’s coalition loses big in Baghdad. They came fifth. Along with defeat in several major Shia provinces, hos position is highly complicated. (19)
His disappointing results are mainly due to poor governance & reluctance to go against corruption. He continued Da’wa Party’s anti-meritorious attitude. Fighting ISIS is not enough to offset 4 years of failed governance. (19)
Although SoL coalition came in 3rd. in #Baghdad, former PM Nouri al-Maliki was the highest vote getter, according to early report. However, he got under 100k votes— nowhere near his 721k votes in 2014 election. (20)
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