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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Esther's wrong again. No surprise coming from a candidate who takes oil & gas money while big corporations gouge people right here at home. 🧵
We have an obligation to lower GHG emissions while we work to lower costs. It's not only a step to address the crisis, it helps ease the burden on health care by helping people breathe easier. 2/4
As we make the right decisions, we secure a livable future for our kids and grandkids. Even though we don't have a silver bullet, I believe we can make #IL17 the epicenter for how innovation and skilled work build a new green economy. 3/4
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Illinois Democrats' new proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight I'd call it an even more aggressive gerrymander than their first proposed map. While it has a similar D+13 efficiency gap, it creates 13 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and only 1 🟣 seat (#IL17). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map puts GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in a Dem-leaning seat & sets up a likely GOP incumbent-vs-GOP incumbent primary. It also creates a new majority-Hispanic #IL03 at the expense of Marie Newman, who's thrown in with Sean Casten. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?…
Illinois update: this Dem 14D-3R gerrymander is both uglier *and* less effective than I'd have expected.
#IL03 Newman: Biden +6
#IL14 Underwood: Biden +8
#IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6
All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs.
#IL03 Newman: Biden +6
#IL14 Underwood: Biden +8
#IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6
All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs.
Additionally, #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is far from doomed in this proposed Biden +11 seat. Dems had the opportunity to make his seat Biden +18 and every current Dem seat Biden +10 or more - and passed.
All things considered: this is just a really weird map. Besides the hideous lines, it carries a big risk of turning into a "dummymander" if Republicans have a good 2022.
It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry.
It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry.
ILLINOIS: per sources, Dems are considering redrawing #IL17 even more aggressively in light of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)'s exit, in a bid to save their House majority.
In the 14D-3R example below, #IL17 would go from Trump +2 to Biden +3. All 13 other D seats are Biden +12 or more.
In the 14D-3R example below, #IL17 would go from Trump +2 to Biden +3. All 13 other D seats are Biden +12 or more.
A 14D-3R map would eliminate Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s #IL16 (Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump R anyway) and severely threaten #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Here's the hypothetical map shaded by partisan lean:
A big winner in this scenario would be Rep. Lauren Underwood (D), whose #IL14 would go from Biden +2 to Biden +15 after picking up Joliet and Bolingbrook.
ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.
Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:
1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.
Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped #GA07 blue & helped put Georgia in the Dem column for the 1st time since 1992.
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez fought for decades for equity & investment in the health & economic security of Latino & tribal communities.
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Marie Newman’s fight for #Equality4All was a national model years before she came to DC.
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
