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Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor

A 🧵on key findings on the status of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as of 31 December 2022, published today in the 2022 edition of the Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor. #TPNW #nuclearban 1/12

At 31.12.2022 #TPNW had 68 states parties+26 signatories that had not yet ratified. Now 27 signatories. Only 4 more signatures/accessions needed for the Treaty to reach 50% of all states. With other supporters, total support is 70.5%. 15 states are undecided, and 43 opposed. 2/12

In 2022, the TPNW gained 9 new states parties, and 5 new signatories. Several of the other supporters have started preparations to join the Treaty. 3/12

Florian Eblenkamp

Der geschätzte Stefan Kornelius schreibt via @SZ über Putins nukleare Drohungen als den "Krieg im Krieg". Er macht den politischen Zwiespalt deutlich und wie schwer politische Entscheidungen in diesem Zusammenhang sind. Was tun? Ein THREAD sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukrain…

"Eine nukleare Eskalation mit einer sogenannten kleinen Bombe wäre ein Albtraum für die ganze Welt. Nicht minder verheerend wäre aber die Kapitulation vor der Nukleardrohung. Hätte sie Erfolg, wäre ein Geschäftsmodell für alle Nuklear-Despoten der Welt etabliert. " Ich stimme zu

Unterstützung - finanziell, humanitär, diplomatisch, militärisch - für die Ukraine ist also im Sinne aller Staaten, die sich nicht nuklear erpressen lassen wollen. Was können diese Staaten aber tun, um das nukleare Risiko zu senken? Stigmatisieren, Isolieren, Abrüsten!

It’s good to see the TPNW (#NuclearBan) given as a reason to avoid investment in companies like @Boeing- because producing nuclear weapons is bad business. ipe.com/news/dutch-pen…. 1/3

2/ Even though there’s been a call for additional investment in the weapons sector since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year- many investors still stay away from controversial weapons, like cluster munitions, landmines and WMD (including bio, chem AND nuclear weapons)

3/ Controversial weapons is handy shorthand for those weapons w/ UN treaties prohibiting them- usually b/c they are
✅indiscriminate
✅disproportionate, or
✅leave a legacy of harm.
No country can hold onto controversial weapons indefinitely, so they're not good for investors

Daryl G Kimball

Appalling, arrogant, irresponsible behavior by major nuclear-armed states (U.S., Britain, Russia, India, and China) who are questioning Pacific island nations' call for nuclear legacy help at UN Human Rights Council. See: reuters.com/world/major-un… cc @USUN @UnderSecT #nuclearban 1/

@USUN @UnderSecT From 1946 to 1958, the United States government tested 67 high-yield nuclear weapons in the atmosphere and under water in the Marshall Islands. This reckless and dangerous series of nuclear detonations caused incalculable harm to the land and people of the Marshall Islands. 2/

@USUN @UnderSecT As the 2012 report by the UN Special Rapporteur on the impact of the U.S. nuclear testing program on human rights in the Republic of the Marshall Island concluded: “The nuclear testing resulted in both immediate and continuing effects on the human rights of the Marshallese..." 3/

Reaching Critical Will

Russia decided to block the adoption of the #NPT2022 substantive outcome. It argued other delegations feel the same way, but so far is the only state to take the floor speaking against consensus. #NPTRevCon

Costa Rica said it would have joined consensus on the #NPT2022 final document, even though the text was far below expectations. It would have accepted the text to defend international law, but notes that the NPT is sorely lacking in implementation of Article VI. #NPTRevCon

Nuclear disarmament requires departure from status quo, said Costa Rica, and for the nuclear-armed to be willing to compromise. Antithesis of nuclear weapons is not more threats, but peace thru diplomatic efforts. Regret we continue to be held hostage by whim of a few. #NPT2022

TMC Asser Instituut

The training programme on disarmament and non-proliferation of WMDs organised w/ @OPCW is the best way to gain in-depth knowledge of the #diplomatic, legal and technical aspects of disarmament and non-proliferation.

Set the step to a safer world:

asser.nl/education-even…

1/14

The training offers a comprehensive and multidisciplinary 5-day programme with insights, lectures, and exercises from top experts in field of #armscontrol.

@meganjanedee will address weapons of mass destruction (#WMD) from a geo-political perspective
2/14

The background of #internationallaw and the use of force will be covered by @c_henders1 while @meier_oliver will address the future of #nuclear arms control and strategic stability.
3/14

🧵1/ #NPTRevCon has started! Nuclear weapons are now prohibited under international law by the TPNW.

The #NPT should carry forward the success of the #TPNW1MSP and strongly condemn nuclear threats and advance nuclear disarmament. #nuclearban

icanw.org/npt_review_con…

2/ During the #TPNW1MSP, states parties issued the strongest multilateral statement ever against nuclear threats and adopted and began implementing a nuclear disarmament action. The #NPTRevCon should also adopt a concrete plan of action to reduce nuclear arsenals. #nuclearban

3/Currently all nuclear weapon states are in violation of their obligation to pursue nuclear disarmament under the NPT.They must return to compliance immediately ➡️icanw.org/10th_npt_revie… Joining the TPNW is one action they can take to implement their obligations under Article VI

🧵The #NPTRevCon is starting tomorrow at the UN headquarters in NYC, read the thread below to learn more about it ⬇️

1/ It’s the review conference of the #NPT, which prohibits its 186 non-nuclear-weapon states parties from ever acquiring nuclear weapons, while obliging its five nuclear-weapon states parties🇨🇳🇫🇷🇷🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 to pursue nuclear disarmament. #NPTRevCon

2/ However, the #NPT does not outlaw nuclear weapons nor prohibit their use. It also does not provide any timelines for when the nuclear armed states are to achieve nuclear disarmament. States parties have failed to adopt a new plan for its implementation for more than a decade.

🧵1/4 In Vienna, history was made 🎉🎉🎉 Here are three highlights from the outcomes of the #TPNW1MSP that explain why it's so revolutionary in its plan to end nuclear weapons. #nuclearban

2/4 Condemning nuclear threats: in response to Russia’s nuclear threats and the increasing dangers of nuclear war, states made clear in the Vienna Declaration that nuclear threats are never acceptable.

3/4 Specific to-dos: States agreed on a 50 point action plan to end nuclear weapons including everything from spreading the word on the #humanitarian harm of nuclear weapons, to assisting survivors of nuclear weapons use and testing and planning a trust fund for affected states.

WE DID IT! #TPNW1MSP just adopted the Vienna Declaration & Action Plan - the strongest multilateral condemnation of nuclear threats and concrete steps on how states will end nuclear weapons through #nuclearban. More here:
➡️bit.ly/3OgvoHD
➡️bit.ly/39N2LTj 1/11

1. No nuclear threats are ever acceptable. Participating states repeated this throughout the conference, and the adopted declaration made it clear: Call it blackmail or deterrence, it is illegal, immoral & dangerous. 2/11 #nuclearban

2. Eliminating nuclear weapons. States set a deadline of 10 years to eliminate nuclear weapons when nuclear-armed states join the TPNW and 90 days for the removal of weapons from host states when they join the Treaty. 3/11

We have been talking a lot about the big first meeting of state parties to the TPNW, but what will actually be discussed? The provisional agenda was just adopted, here is what’s on the table. A 🧵 1/12 #nuclearban #Vienna

The meeting will begin by electing officers and with some introductions and statements from high level-officials, including UN secretary-general @antonioguterres 2/12

Then delegates will go through important elements like officially adopting the agenda, the rules of procedure, deciding on how to organize work, and a general exchange of views 3/12

@MonikaR20218706

Bericht von der Ostermarschkundgebung in Frankfurt a.M. am Römer(Südhessen),
Ostermontag, 18.04.22:

Nachdem die Basis höflich, aber explizit vom Platz verwiesen wurde konnte die Veranstaltung kraftvoll und harmonisch beginnen und es gab viele eindrucksvolle Redebeiträge:

Teil 2 Reiner Braun‘s kraftvolle Rede „Sind Sie verückt“ mit dem Papst-Zitat zu 2% und 100 Mrd-Aufrüstungs-Programm, welches ein paar wenigen Profite in die Taschen bringt

3 Reiner Braun in #Frankfurt
„900 Mill. Menschen gehen mit leerem Bauch zu Bett“ - und die Anzahl der hungernden Menschen wird weiter steigen - Kein Verständnis für diese Aufrüstungsspirale

🧵1/ Nuclear weapons have not been detonated only in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, over the years nuclear armed states have done over 2000 #nucleartests causing catastrophic damage to human lives and our planet. Scroll to learn more.

2/ The two atomic bombs the US dropped on Japan in 1945 killed and maimed hundreds of thousands of people, and their effects are still being felt today. More here: icanw.org/hiroshima_and_…

3/ Read more about the nuclear tests here ➡️ atomicarchive.com/almanac/test-s…

🧵1/ Many have questions about the former stationing of Soviet nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory during the Cold War given the ongoing crisis. Scroll to read about it and learn more here: icanw.org/faq_on_ukraine…

#nuclearban #Ukrainecisis #Russis

2/ Ukraine never had an independent nuclear weapons arsenal, it inherited an aging nuclear arsenal, from the Soviet Union, over which it did not have operational control and could not have safely maintained.

3/ Arguments that Ukraine would not have been invaded if it had nuclear weapons are fallacies, there is little convincing historical evidence that the possession or presence of nuclear weapons prevents conflict. #nuclearban

One question we’ve been asked a lot lately is how many nuclear warheads exist right now.
Keep scrolling to find out ⬇️

The numbers are absurd. There is no way we could respond to the devastating consequences of a nuclear war that’s why we need the #nuclearban!

1/ Members of the @_AfricanUnion met today to promote African adherence to the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. 🌍📜✍️👏🥳 #nuclearban

2/ 42 African states negotiated and voted to adopt the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in 2017:
🇩🇿🇦🇴🇧🇯🇧🇼🇧🇫🇧🇮🇨🇻🇹🇩🇨🇬🇨🇮🇩🇯🇨🇩🇪🇬🇬🇶🇪🇷🇪🇹🇬🇦🇬🇲🇬🇭🇬🇼🇰🇪🇱🇸🇱🇷🇲🇬🇲🇼🇲🇷🇲🇺🇲🇦🇲🇿🇳🇦🇳🇬🇸🇹🇸🇳🇸🇨🇸🇱🇿🇦🇸🇩🇹🇿🇹🇬🇹🇳🇺🇬🇿🇼

3/ To date, 10 African states have become parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons:
🇧🇯🇧🇼🇰🇲🇬🇲🇬🇼🇱🇸🇳🇦🇳🇬🇸🇨🇿🇦

And a further 19 African states are signatories:
🇩🇿🇦🇴🇨🇻🇨🇫🇨🇬🇨🇮🇨🇩🇬🇭🇱🇾🇲🇬🇲🇼🇲🇿🇳🇪🇸🇹🇸🇩🇹🇬🇹🇿🇿🇲🇿🇼

🧵1/ The nuclear threat is growing, and it is very normal that it creates feelings of worry and anxiety in a lot of people. We asked a psychologist in our network to help out with some practical tips, we hope these will help. #nuclearban

2/ Try to remind yourselves of key facts and then aim to "end" the thought there so that catastrophic thoughts, imagination, and feelings of anxiety do not get too much space in your thoughts.

3/ It can help to remember to focus on your breathing for a while if you suddenly feel anxious.

🧵1/ What can you do to take action to support Ukraine and push back against Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons?

#StandwithUkraine #nuclearban

2/ Stand in solidarity with the people of Ukraine💙💛, call for peace, and condemn both Russia's illegal invasion and Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons.

3/ Reach out to your representative, your MP, and ask them what they are doing to condemn the threat of using nuclear weapons, get them to prioritize nuclear disarmament.

Yesterday we explained what nuclear weapons do when they are used. We know that this is a risk because of Putin's explicit nuclear threats and Russia's grotesque nuclear arsenal. Here are some facts about Russian nuclear weapons near Ukraine. (Thread🧵) #nuclearban

2/ Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal, with nearly 6,000 total nuclear warheads, over 1,500 of which are deployed. Russia can launch its warheads from missiles, airplanes, and submarines. fas.org/issues/nuclear…

3/ But how many of these weapons are relevant for a conflict in Ukraine? Over 1,000 Russian nuclear warheads can be launched from short-range ground-based missiles or dropped from planes. tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…

This morning, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons. What does that actually mean? (Thread🧵)
kremlin.ru/events/preside…

1) Flash. An intense Tsunami of light, the brightest and blinding light anyone has ever seen.

2) Fireball. A flaming ball of gas hotter than the sun appears and grows to a fireball km in width. Within seconds anyone and anything within this ball is gone, evaporated. In Hiroshima, the only thing left were people’s shadows, burnt forever into stone. icanw.org/hiroshima_and_…

1/ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a direct violation of international law and puts civilians at incredible risk.
We stand in solidarity with the people of Ukraine and urge the international community to pressure Russia to participate in conversation and diplomacy. #nuclearban

2/ Putin’s threat this morning to retaliate with "consequences unprecedented in history" proves that the deployment of nuclear weapons is always possible and escalating.
kremlin.ru/events/preside…

3/ This conflict is already harming civilians. Adding mass murder threats with nuclear weapons does nothing to protect people. The only thing NWs do in this situation is elevate the risk of a massive humanitarian catastrophe no one can respond to:

icanw.org/report_no_plac…

The Postmodern Cowboy

1\ Serious question time: Remember the last time we had a cold war and there were HUGE #nuclearban rallies? Things like @Greenpeace got started. We are in a pandemic. Where are the anti-proliferation rallies for #bioweapons?

2\ For that matter where are the campaigning groups pushing back against #climate hostile #geoengineering practices like atmospheric seeding? theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…

3\ Where is the pushback against plans to seed Earth's orbit with thousands of vision and sensor blocking #SpaceX #Starlink satellites, which will eventually become #spacejunk? scientificamerican.com/article/spacex…

📢BREAKING

🧵1/ The German🇩🇪 Coalition government has just released its draft coalition government agreement in which it would commit to observing the first meeting of states parties of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. #nuclearban #ampel #koalitionsvertrag

2/By attending as observers, 🇩🇪 would be taking a first step in following the will of the German people. Recent polls say that the vast majority of voters across democratic parties (83%) support the TPNW and oppose acquisition of nuclear capable aircraft. #nuclearban

3/ This news follows last month’s decision by Norway🇳🇴 to participate at the first MSP and firmly indicates that there should be no conflict with the TPNW for Nato member states. More are sure to follow. #TPNW1MSP

https://twitter.com/nuclearban/status/1448279783851368453

Thread 1/16

In a new survey experiment article now published in @The_JOP, with @RDavisGibbons & @JonathonBaron, we test the relative strength of elite vs. group cues in shaping US public opinion on nuclear politics. doi.org/10.1086/714924

2/16

So far, opinion surveys and survey experiments by scholars have primarily assessed public support for using nuclear weapons in conflict or engaging in nuclear proliferation. We now turn to survey experimental research on nuclear disarmament in our article.

3/16

For nuclear surveys see e.g. @Lauren_Sukin @charlicarpenter @Koch_LL @MichalSmetana3 @NKnowledges @doreen__h @RealTylerBowen @MichaelGoldfien @Matt__Graham @PaulCAvey @OndrejRosendorf @mVranka @NaomiEgel @lincolnhines @ProfOnderco @kjolvegeland @jiyoung_ko @JoshuaASchwartz