Why have percentages of Leave vs Remain have stubbornly stuck so close to each other for eighteen months and now we’re suddenly seeing such a dramatic shift in poll after poll? Well, I have a little theory. #Brexit THREAD.1
Bear with me. One of the intellectual difficulties with Brexit has always been that, by virtue of offering two such distinct and mutually exclusive paths, the counterfactual would always be difficult to prove. This is why experts were attacked. 2
You say “See? Brexit didn’t bring economic ruin.” I point out “Economy is showing worrying signs and we haven’t left yet.” Similarly, in the event of a post-Brexit economic collapse, there will be no way to prove it wasn’t due to other factors and would have happened anyway. 3
Conversely, if Brexit is somehow averted, there will always be some who will fervently believe that, had we shown more courage and resolve, the sunlit uplands were there for the taking. It’s difficult to positively disprove a hypothetical long chain of complex events. 4
In effect, any Brexit risk pointed out cannot be proven until it is too late. So, it is dismissed as “project fear”. There is, however, a notable exception: something tangible that was promised by Brexiters and which was meant to have happened safely before we left. The Deal. 5
“They need us more than we need them”; “It will be the easiest deal in history”; “The EU will fold”; We hold all the cards”; “It will be done and dusted in mere months”; This was demonstrably a huge lie. With each passing day it becomes more painfully obvious as a huge lie. 6
And while Brexiters can point the finger of blame at the EU and accuse it of being obstructive, self-interested and seeking to punish the UK in order to dissuade future problems, ALL these factors were not only predictable, but actually predicted - and blithely ignored. 7
The undeniable fact is Brexiters misled the public as to how easy this would be. So, while they continue to point to sunlit uplands in 5, 10, 50 years’ time, the fact is that they promised them *at minimal cost and inconvenience*. This was a lie and it has changed the equation. 8
I set this out to encourage all those campaigning for a #PeoplesVote, those who believe democracy is a process not a snapshot, those trying to drag Labour to a sensible position. KEEP GOING. Change is sometimes a curve, but often a tipping point and we’ve reached it. 9 THREAD.END
