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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) #Brexit - what can Labour do?
Consider the following:
Labour comes out demanding a general election on a clear "Remain" ticket
"There's no time for a #peoplesvote because the Tories have dragged us to the precipice. But the mood in the country is changing...
2) "the Tories have exhausted all options for negotiation. This deal is the best we have & it's terrible. We need to act in the national interest and stop this once & for all, it's our primary duty to protect jobs & prosperity, not rich tax Dodgers"
3) Labour makes Brexit about rich speculators, disaster capitalists, EU tax haven legislation, everything possible about the irresponsible Tory adventure.

Meanwhile the deal is rejected in parliament.

A hesitant message for a #PeoplesVote becomes a strong Remain ticket
4) Labour get confirmation that the EU27 would extend A50 for a pro remain Labour GE.

And then this builds & becomes irresistible. Support for Remain as a sane option grows, support for Labour grows.

Now, what is the worst case scenario?
5) Labour could lose a few seats, but how many would they lose really?
The conservatives would need a clear majority as all other coalitions would be on the the side of Remain

A unity national government
6) What could Labour win, best case?
They would save the country
If that's not enough (and it may not be for Corbyn) they would wipe out the Tory Right for a generation

Isn't that worth it?
Why would any responsible public servant not take that path?
7) are we really saying that the risk of losing a few more Labour seats isn't worth the possibility of dragging the country back from this precipice?

Is anyone in Labour really saying they don't want Corbyn to do the right thing for the country? That they value those seats more?
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More from @tony_nog see all

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1) 2 observations about David Davis comments here
1stly the really pathetic point about the no deal #Brexit leaders is that even they don't believe in no deal, its still basically the worst bluff in history, believing 27 nations will fold on a cakeism deal before we do
2) if you believe in "no deal" & WTO is "liberating" then why talk about using it as leverage to get that "better" #brexit deal?
It's the same, tired, "they need us more..." line with added idiocy (hint: if you're going to bluff, don't tell everyone)

3) secondly, why does Davis still get airtime? He's been utterly wrong on every single aspect of #Brexit.

He thought we could strike individual trade deals with Germany. He also promised "exact same benefits". He attended 4 hours of negotiations. In all honesty, he's an idiot
Read 3 tweets
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Thoughts on #uncivilwar #Brexit
1) I thought it was good on the whole. Lots of details not covered, focused a lot on Cummings & didn't cover the corruption in Vote Leave enough but at the end of the day it's a drama, not a documentary
2) there's a lot of stuff Brexit geeks like me would have like to have seen covered but as it was, there was a lot of material in there which they covered at breakneck speed.

Couple of things jumped out for me though
3) Firstly the mood at the end of the film captured I think the mood in the country now. There is no joy in #Brexit, no triumphant outpouring.

No one is getting what they want, and Leave supporters are blaming others for Brexit not working
Read 7 tweets
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1) You have a mortgage, several credit cards & a pay day loan so you go to the bank to restructure your finances

You can't get to an agreement & you can't afford the payments so you stop paying

But you still have the debt & now a busted credit score

This is no deal & the £39b
2) there's this idea that we save £39b if we #Brexit with no deal.
The obligation still exists, we've already agreed this. We're not "buying a deal" we're meeting commitments.
If we crash out & don't pay we're just sending a message, the UK is untrustworthy as well as incompetent
3) if you're the kind of person who thinks it's OK for the UK to walk away from a debt its already agreed to then you're probably the kind of person who doesn't pay his fair share of a meal, or gets his round in, or returns that borrowed drill

A bit of a shit basically
Read 3 tweets

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So now the latest Corbynista gambit us to pretend there is a choice between a General election and stopping #brexit this is a completely false alternative
It is then claimed that in wanting to stop #brexit you are in some way callously allowing the homeless to die and are therefore evil
The fact that there probably isn't going to be a general election is seemingly no excuse. Nor is the fact that Soubry Grieve Heidi Allen and Co aren't going to back a no confidence motion but would back a #PeoplesVote if corbyn backed it is no excuse either
Read 11 tweets
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Before this week's #Brexit shenanigans, I said this:

"With May as Prime Minister there can be no Brexit deal"

I stand by that statement

I see no way that the #EUCO - ongoing as I write this thread - can give May anything that'll appease the Brexit hard liners in her party

🇪🇺 is not going to make the backstop time limited or allow 🇬🇧 to unilaterally withdraw it. So the deal on the table is essentially unchanged
The Tories reaching across the political divide to Labour still looks like a ridiculously long shot as well:
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 16 tweets
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We’re heading for Parliament vs Government (first time since 1940?). My thoughts in a thread. 1/14
Most Tory MPs will back May’s deal. Because they understand EU enough to see there isn’t a better Brexit & they believe their voters don’t want them to oppose Brexit. 2/
But Parliament will vote May’s deal down. Labour opposes it. Anti-Brexit Tories will join them, plus some anti-deal hard Brexiters who don’t understand EU or UK’s position in the world. 3/
Read 14 tweets
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If only this was true!

We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The Parliamentary calculus states that the only way any Brexit deal will pass is if Labour support the motion. Most #Brexperts don't believe they would, be we think they will and we also think it's a Tory trap. Allow us to explain the logic...
Labour's priority is a General Election, and the bare bones deal being offered by EU loosely matches Labour's CU demands, keeps the NI border open and gives May some scope to soften the WA in exchange for Labour votes. But why would Labour support it and not collapse government?
Read 24 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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#Remain voted for:

A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.

#BrexitReality
#EnlargedEurope

The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
After #Brexit, the UK will have no influence on EU enlargement. In fact, as setting the EU as a rival, every country that joins the EU will a) strengthen the EU, and b) unravels any trade deals that the UK will have made with that country, isolating it further.
Read 25 tweets

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