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Color me impressed by that Trump head-fake on cancelling his meeting w Putin. But, as my Moscow colleagues explain, the Kremlin is teeing up a meeting that serves Russia's interests. Who's confident that this White House has done likewise? 1/ carnegie.ru/2018/11/27/wha… 
Kremlin wants to let bygones to be bygones--ie no need to re-litigate 2016 election or harp on what Russia's doing in #Ukraine. "Putin recently said that Trump might well be reelected in 2020, and that Trump still wants to stabilize U.S. relations with Russia." @DmitriTrenin 2/
Putin loves the fact that Trump, not him, will take the blame for killing the INF Treaty. "The fact that the United States pulled out of the treaty first gives Moscow a psychological and tactical advantage." @DmitriTrenin 3/
Trump continues to nurture naive hopes that he somehow can sweet-talk Putin into abandoning Russia's burgeoning partnership with China. That dog won't hunt. @AlexGabuev 4/
Trump also wants Moscow to stop trying to take the pressure off North Korea and water down sanctions. The Kremlin isn't buying that either. 5/ @AlexGabuev
"Hawks in the Russian military establishment think that Washington is using the North Korean nuclear problem as a pretext to build up its military presence in northeast Asia, and thus put pressure on Russia and China" 6/ @AlexGabuev
On the #Ukraine crisis, Putin knows what he wants and can turn the heat up or down as he sees fit. However, the fact "Russian forces fired on & seized 3 Ukrainian ships is precisely the kind of dangerous incident that could escalate into something more serious." 7/ @AlexGabuev
Will the threat of more sanctions change Putin's calculus? Don't be so sure. The Kremlin has accepted that US sanctions are now a permanent part of the landscape and is making its plans accordingly. 8/ @AlexGabuev
Making matters worse, many influential groups actually like the sanctions and think their bread is buttered by Russia's being cut off from the West. (Think: the security services, mil-industrial complex, firms that cash in on import substitution and gov't subsidies 9/ @AlexGabuev
As @AlexGabuev explained in this tweet yesterday, Putin's smartest move would be to release the Ukrainian sailors and look like a peace-maker. Now that Trump has canceled the meeting, such a move is probably less likely because it would show weakness. END/
