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Initial thoughts on the Israeli election in tweet form (more extensive thoughts to come later): Netanyahu will form a relatively narrow rightwing coalition again, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, but there are some important developments on the margins 1/
First is Bennett and Shaked failing to make the Knesset, which is enormous. It’s not just about 4 seats that go elsewhere, but about the fact that the two of them hatched Hayemin Hehadash as a vehicle to be the post-Bibi leaders of the right bloc. Now they’ll be sitting home 2/
Rather than potentially seeing Prime Minister Shaked within a decade, it’s now going to be a difficult return to relevance for them at all. Also means that the vanguard of the annexation movement is out of the government, which is good news for those worried about this issue 3/
I’ll bet that this means the end of the Bennett-Shaked partnership, and that her next political move will be to return to Likud while he founders around for awhile. But the tandem is going to be a thing of the past 4/
Next important takeaway regards the left. It’s easy to see the ten seats in total for Labor and Meretz and write Labor’s political obituary, but I think that’s premature. Meretz will fold into Labor, but Labor is going to be on the upswing 5/
Avi Gabbay has been historically disastrous and he’s going to be gone, which is a plus immediately. The group of remaining Labor MKs are extremely impressive and talented parliamentarians, and Itzik Shmuli and Stav Shaffir are future superstars. 6/
But leaving those internal factors aside, a lot of Labor voters strategically voted for Kachol Lavan because they thought Gantz could take down Bibi. A big chunk, if not most, of them will come back. Labor has an uphill climb, but I wouldn’t write them off 7/
Next, the biggest impact from this election will be on religion and state issues. A coalition with 21 seats coming from the Haredim and the religious Zionist settlers means no quarter on religious pluralism, reducing the power of the rabbinate, Shabbat transportation, etc. 8/
Majorities of Israelis told pollsters before the election that they wanted a better balance between religion and state, and that will be the last thing that happens. It’s going to spark unhappiness among many who voted for the rightwing on nationalism issues 9/
But it’s also going to make things even worse with American Jews, for whom the most controversial issues have been religious pluralism and the Otzma deal. It’s also going to be jarring for many American Jews to see multiple ministers from Shas, Jewish Home, and Tkuma 10/
Finally, this reinforces my previously held view that we aren’t going to see the Trump peace plan. Bibi’s priority is to pass an immunity law or extract promises from his partners to back him once indictments come. This won’t happen if they think Bibi’s flirting with a deal 11/
And I don’t see this administration doing anything to embarrass Bibi, make his life more difficult, or force him into a coalition that he doesn’t want. Bibi has no wiggle room on this given the margin he has to play with, and I expect the peace plan to be interminably delayed END
