Thread by @gilmcgowan

I’m calling BS on Jason Kenney. This chart shows the REAL cause of our economic pain: the US fracking boom, which has transformed global oil markets. Anyone who ignores this reality is either a grifter or an idiot. (THREAD) #ableg #abpoli #abvote

The explosion in US production — exacerbated by the Saudi’s attempt to drive US shale producers out of business by opening their taps — upset the global supply-demand balance, causing a collapse in prices. Global oil prices have remained lower ever since. #ableg #abpoli

People who say that the Alberta recession is all Notley’s fault ignore the fact that low oil prices ALWAYS lead to lower investment. This is essentially an iron law. This chart shows the correlation between price and investment GLOBALLY since 1980. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

People who say Alberta is performing worse than other oil jurisdictions are either ignorant or deliberately spreading falsehoods Here’s what has REALLY happened to global O&G investment over the past few years. Looks JUST like Alberta! #ableg #abpoli #abvote

But isn’t it true that investment is flooding from Alberta to the US? As it turns out, that’s a falsehood, too. Take a look at this chart on US investment. More proof that it’s low prices, not Notley’s policy, that are suppressing investment. #abpoli #abvote #ableg

Another myth that has been propagated by Kenney and his crew is that there is an energy sector jobs boom in Texas that we’re missing out on. It’s BS! The collapse in oil prices actually killed MORE jobs in Texas. And, like Alberta, they haven’t come back. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

Here’s another chart looking oil & gas jobs in some of North America’s major energy jurisdictions. As you can see, even as production continues to ramp up (including in Alberta), it’s happening with fewer workers. How does that work? In a word: automation. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

An Alberta engineer wrote an excellent Facebook post on automation in the oil and gas sector. Basically, he says the low cost environment (triggered by the US fracking boom) has forced companies to automate to survive. And he says no politician can reverse the trend. #ableg

To top things off, we also have to consider what happens to global oil demand if (as seems likely) the world starts getting serious about climate change. One mainstream scenario modelled by the EIA sees demand falling by 30 percent by 2040. Oil prices would crater. #ableg #abpoli

So, what does our oil & gas sector need to thrive in the changing global energy landscape? As outlined in this column, we need to find markets other than the US; we need to lower our emissions as a competitive strategy; and we need to diversify. #ableg edmontonjournal.com/opinion/column…

How do the NDP & UCP compare on their ability to help our energy sector deal with these big changes? Have a look and decide for yourself. (Hint: one party is preparing for a changing future and another is pretending we can return to the past). #abvote nextalberta.org/compare_parties

Kenney doesn’t get it. The reason we’re hurting is because the global oil & gas economy is in the midst of a sweeping transformation, starting with the US fracking boom. This is not mentioned even ONCE in the UCP platform. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

How can we take Kenney seriously on the economy when he either doesn’t understand or is deliberately denying the real challenges facing our oil & gas sector? Would you hire someone to run your business who was so out-to-lunch on the issues facing your sector? #ableg #abvote

For more information on what’s REALLY happening in Alberta’s oil and gas sector...and what we should be doing about it, visit nextalberta.org. In this election, vote for the future that’s already here, rather than a past that’s never coming back. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

Finally, for a quick summary of all of these issues, watch this clip from an interview I recently did with CTV. #ableg #abpoli #abvote

https://twitter.com/gilmcgowan/status/1117057054122729472?s=21