Thread by @Peoples_Pundit

Minnesota.

For the umpteenth time, the state I think Donald Trump has the best chance of taking that he didn't take in 2016, outside of a not-so unexpected flip of a traditional battleground like New Hampshire, is Minnesota.

He visited the state one time, and it almost flipped.

I don't think Nevada and New Mexico are even worth visiting. Yes, Nevada was close, but demographics are demographics.

If you're the Trump Campaign, is it wise to test if Washoe County was a one-off in 2018, meaning it'll flip back from Democrats, or do you hammer Olmsted, etc?

The answer is you redirect energy/money/GOTV etc to Minnesota, which geographically and logistically makes it easier to defend the Rust Belt.

There's a lot of work the GOP needs to do there.

Fun fact RE: New Hampshire, which used to be decided by voters who ran away from their high-tax neighbor Massachusetts, is that it backed G.W. Bush 48.07% to 46.80% in 2000.

But in 2004, it flipped 50.24% 48.87% for John Kerry.

Why?

War. Neoconservatism...

Voters in New Hampshire dislike war, and by extension, neoconservatism. Those old enough might remember G.W. Bush ran opposed to foreign intervention in 2000.

By 2004, the Bush Doctrine was the crown jewel of neoconservatism. But it was unpopular in NH.