Thread by @YadlinAmos

The Iranian-Israeli conflict is heating up on two strategic fronts:
1)The Iranian nuclear program.
2)The Israeli ampaign between wars (CBW) against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
1/8

*Nuclear*: the site PM Netanyahu exposed is indeed a covert sites that the Iranians hid from the IAEA – but not active sites. The sites was discovered as a result of information the Mossad took from the secret archive storage facilities in Teheran.
2/8

The two sites Turquzabad and Abadeh are not “smoking guns” of huge violations of the JCPOA.
So what are they?
A.Additional evidence that Iran lied about its past nuclear weapons activities - PMD.
B.A violation of the NPT!!!
3/8

I don’t expect that the E3/UNSC/ will do something about this expose. Is there anyone who is not already aware that Iran has lied about these issues (PMD/NPT) many times in the past?
IAEA is key here - can we raise the expectations from the atomic watch dog?
4/8

Despite the domestic election claims that Israeli intelligence methods and sources were exposed, that is not the case. The Iranians know that the archive was taken and what the files contained – hence they destroyed the site before Israel’s announcement.
5/8

That being said, the timing and the drama of this disclosure are in-line with domestic Israeli politics rather than policy. If the timing was meant to scuttle the expected Trump-Rouhani meeting at the sidelines of UNGA – it seems that it failed to do so.
6/8

*the Campaign between Wars*: Iran has not halted its shipments of materiel and weapons to Syria and Lebanon. Quite the opposite, it has ramped up its activities. The 🇺🇸showing a “yellow card” to🇮🇱 on strikes in Iraq led to attack on the “legitimate” side of the border.
7/8

Qassem Suleimani responded quickly but ineffectively: the rockets his forces fired from the outskirts of Damascus did not even make it to Israel. If 18 operatives including Iranians were indeed killed in the recent strike in Syria then the path to escalation has been paved.
8/8