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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗
@Francesc_Forex
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Standard Chartered 1/5: #USD – The peak is nearing
We remain neutral on the USD albeit with a slight negative bias as the uptrend appears to be coming to an end. However, we believe conditions for a reversal are not yet in place.
Standard Chartered 2/5: The USD has remained relatively resilient on the back of the US’s strong cyclical story relative to the rest of the world. Additionally, tight USD liquidity and capital flows have remained USD-supportive and could persist.
Standard Chartered 3/5: The higher US yield structure means that any US flows to the rest of the world will likely be hedged while flows into the US will likely be unhedged – which could prop the USD up in the near term. Further upside risks include an intensifying #tradewar,
Standard Chartered 4/5: continued decelerating global activity & a disorderly Brexit.
Given the gains we have already seen, the likelihood of further USD strength is gradually decreasing. The USD could see the rally of past year plateau or reverse if fiscal policy outside the US
Standard Chartered 5/5: spurs a stabilisation in growth and interest rate expectations. While the USD continues to grind along its upward-sloping trend channel, we see resistance for the USD (#DXY) index at the early Sept high of 99.37 – stronger resistance sits at around 100.15.
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#USD #tradewar #DXY

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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗
@Francesc_Forex
HSBC 1/3: #CentralBanks: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (#MPC) voted unanimously to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% in September, as widely expected. It also voted to keep its asset purchase target at GBP 435bn.
HSBC 2/3: The MPC cited global weakness and the US-China trade war as weighing on the economy through weak exports, and that Brexit had weighed on business confidence and investment. Furthermore, the committee cut its growth forecast for Q3 to 0.2% from 0.3% as it signalled that
HSBC 3/3: policy rates could be cut if the UK’s departure from the EU continues to be delayed. The statement reiterated the line that rates could go in “either direction” under a no-deal break from the EU.
Read 3 tweets
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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗
@Francesc_Forex
Rabobank 1/4: Expectations that the Federal Reserve is on the brink of cutting interest rates combined with forecasts that the Fed funds rate could be significantly lower by the end of the last year have unsurprisingly knocked the USD in recent weeks.
Rabobank 2/4: That said, the outlook for the greenback is complicated by a number of other factors. Firstly other major central banks are also pursuing accommodative policy settings. This should dilute the impact of lower Fed rates on the USD.
Rabobank 3/4: Additionally, slowing world growth and geopolitical risks are likely to stymie appetite for risky emerging market assets. As long as confidence in EM is shaky, there is good reason to expect the USD to find solid support.
Read 4 tweets
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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗
@Francesc_Forex
National Bank of Canada 1/5: With wages on the rise, one would have expected some cost-push inflation. But after picking up steam earlier in the year, consumer prices seem to be moderating again as evidenced by core PCE inflation rate dropping in Oct to 1.8% y-o-y,
National Bank of Canada 2/5: or below Fed’s 2% target. The core PCE’s more recent trends should be concerning from #Fed’s standpoint given that the three-month annualized rate sank to just 1.1%, lowest since May last year. The strong dollar is keeping import prices under wraps
National Bank of Canada 3/5: & it’s also possible firms, intent in maintaining market share, are opting to absorb rising costs instead of passing them on to consumers. Their profit buffer, made more significant thanks to earlier corporate tax cuts, seems to be helping cushion
Read 5 tweets

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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Hi all 😀Last week was unkind to Gold Bulls. I think we will see a lot more of this in April. Stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
So much for looking back at old forecasts. Now - some perspectives on what we will see ahead #HZupdates
#DXY is about to soar. #USD bears will be annihilated in the coming rally. I think we may see my target of 107-109 before end 2019. During deflationary phase, cash (USD) is everything! #HZupdates
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
$USD #liquidity
1/ While the US Dollar has pulled back in January it was not unexpected looking at net issuance by the US Treasury and the rate of change in excess reserves. Using a 3 month adv. on net issuance and excess reserves their may be further upside to the US Dollar.
$USD #liquidity
2/ There was a small uptick in global liquidity in December 2018 in rate of change terms. This has supported many markets that were oversold. However, there has been no sizeable change in trend. Will know more once January data is released.
#equities #liquidity
3/ If we have a closer look at the rate of change in the major central bank balance sheets we can see the contraction throughout 2018. The rate of change in the MSCI All World Index tracks it closely. Again notice the slight uptick in December 2018.
Read 59 tweets
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Matthew Gertz
@MattGertz
Megyn Kelly was able to get extremely far because she had a very good PR team and neither the journalists who wrote glossy profiles about her nor the news executive who wanted to hire her ever apparently watched her Fox show.
In July 2013, when Kelly moved from an afternoon slot to Fox primetime, I wrote about the "two sides" of her work. mediamatters.org/blog/2013/07/0…
Kelly was adept at garnering viral moments by making her outwardly misogynistic Fox colleagues look like fools. Those "Megyn Moments" would get a lot of press attention. But the balance of her show was standard Fox, featuring racial fearmongering and conspiracy theories.
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KidTempo #FBPE
@KidTempo
#Remain voted for:

A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.

#BrexitReality
#EnlargedEurope

The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
After #Brexit, the UK will have no influence on EU enlargement. In fact, as setting the EU as a rival, every country that joins the EU will a) strengthen the EU, and b) unravels any trade deals that the UK will have made with that country, isolating it further.
Read 25 tweets

Trending hashtags

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