, 19 tweets, 17 min read Read on Twitter
Dear all 🙂Hope you enjoy the weekend! We are still in the Twilight Zone. Despite continued deteriorating economic fundamentals across the globe, US stock market continues to rally. But for how long...? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
Indicators and signals across the globe continue to suggest economic slowdown - which slowly but surely spreads to all geographical regions and industries. It is my firm belief, that US will not decouple and US #equities will realize this at some point #HZupdates
#WTI sends clear signal from major Ending Diagonal. We may rally further in wave (B) - but soon we will see a reversal, which will send #Oil towards its LT-target of <20USD #HZupdates
#Copper rests on trendline since bottom in 2015-16. When(!) it breaks, chances are, that the deflationary developments will accelerate. Blue or Black path? #HZupdates
Deflation gauge, #AUDUSD, could be developing in wedge which is a retest of strong resistance area. When this bounce is done, we should see reversal and strong decline #HZupdates
#TLT declined on Friday. I think we may see a last rally up for retest of broken wedge = wave 5. When this is done, I think we may see strong reversal and a spike in #rates develop in late 2019 and early 2020. This will not be LT-top - only correction!! #HZupdates
#VIX has been chrushed.. Seems like nding Diagonal, which often ends trend. Observe RSI has been moving higher, while price has fallen since Mid-2017. IF we see Throw-over and a strong acceleration up, it will be a strong signal, that the trend has changed #SP500 #HZupdates
#VIX sends powerful signal to #SP500, which is in Ending Expanding Diagonal developing since early 2018. Only worry is, that structure is apparent to everybody in market. Still we have major negative divergence with RSI, which is a warning of coming weakness #HZupdates
On Daily, we may see wedge developing. RSI and STOC do not suggest imminent top. IF Ending Diagonal plays out, #SP500 can rally to ~3050 or ~3124. We could even see rally continue to 3366-area. Major top likely to be confirmed by major bottom and strong rally in VIX #HZupdates
So, we may see further inflationary bounce in short time frame, but we have indications of trouble to come, if AUDUSD, Copper, Oil etc. develop according to their structures. A deflationary environment! #HZupdates
I hear Gold Bulls calling ATH in #Gold. I think they will be disappointed. The expectation of a new Bull rests on a misunderstanding of Gold. If first phase of crisis is deflationary, then Gold will not do well. The developments since bottom in 2015 is NOT new BULL #HZupdates
I think we will see #Gold rally to min. ~1484, which is 50% retracement of 2011-15 decline. We may even see rally to 1590 (61.8% Fib). But - the entire structure since 2015 is correctional of nature. I'm long since 1392 with target of 1484 #HZupdates
One indicator, that the #Equity rally may be coming to an end. #NasdaqCompositeIndex shows decline in number of stocks above their Daily 200SMA. Same structure like 2006-08. From demetra.dk #HZupdates
If #Gold was in new Bull market, #Silver would have been leading - and not be looking like this. We may see a rally set in soon, as Gold rallies towards ~1484 - but it is only a bounce in wave B #HZupdates
#GDX would also have been above 2016-high - following #Gold, if we were in new Bull market. We may see last rally in #GDX as Gold pushes up towards ~1484. Soon however, the pot. spike in rates and deflationary environment will be tough on #Gold, #Silver and #Miners #HZupdates
The short term rally in #Gold, may be brought out be weakness in #DXY and #USD. #EURUSD seems like it could rally 1.158ish before top #HZupdates
The coming weakness in #DXY is very clear in chart below. I think we will decline to ~95.0 rather fast, which will bring out chit-chat of #dedollarization. Nothing could be more wrong and we will likely see face-ripping rally when this bottom is in #HZupdates
That is all from #HZupdates for now. #Deflation will unfold, taking #commodities, #equities etc. down. We may see a last push up for the above as #DXY weakens to ~95.0. Bottom in this area could send major signal to everybody to prepare for deflationary fall-outs! Take care!
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