Thread by @pmdfoster

So quick thoughts on @BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar pow-wow and what we know/don't know. /1 Thread

@BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar First thing is that something definitely happening. This is not just blame-game posturing.

Asked a very trusted source tonight (who would know) what the outline was and they replied "sorry, can't" or words to that effect.

When top people clam up, that means one thing... /2

There is finally something substantive to protect....a proposal that might be workable and no-one wants derailing with leaks.

In #Brexit the sound of silence is always the sound of deals being done - or of a potential to be done. /3

I note that even the peerless @tconnellyRTE doesn't have a clear read - QED. /4

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182402359634419712

@tconnellyRTE There's a couple of other intriguing things we know - since rest is speculation.

The Irish seemed more chipper, more willing to make a big announcement than the British side.

As @Mij_Europe noted, more caution../5

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1182322838532952065?s=20

@tconnellyRTE @Mij_Europe Which might suggest that @BorisJohnson nervous that whatever concession has been made risks alienating @duponline or his backbenchers.

Brexit negs are a litany of UK PMs over-promising, under-delivering...and getting slaughtered for it when they get back home. /6

@tconnellyRTE @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @duponline So worth remembering that whatever Johnson gets in Brussels, if he gets a deal, has to go through UK Parliament.

Lots of talk of Labour MPs at the ready - not my bailiwick - but a deal opens door to hard 'Tory' #Brexit can it get the numbers? /7

@tconnellyRTE @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @duponline So what might the 'breakthrough' be?

Well at this everyone is speculating but we know it needs to bridge gaps primarily on a) 'consent' - so how NI has 'say' in deal b) customs. /8

@tconnellyRTE @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @duponline On the 'consent' party worth noting that the EU is saying this is the more easily fixable area.

So the DUP veto needs to 'go'...but whatever replaces it has to fly, since @BorisJohnson needs DUP on board for numbers in Westminster. /9

@tconnellyRTE @Mij_Europe @BorisJohnson @duponline If it is based around the 'double majority' principle and 'parity of esteem' ideas laid out by @BrunoBrussels this week that might be a big ask for DUP.

From veto before end of transition period; to 'no veto' effectively. Big political face loss /10

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1181845952392503296

So consent, while less obvioulsy intractable than customs, still has chance to be tricky...

So what about customs? Well, a logical landing zone was identified by @RaoulRuparel recently - the revival for the May 'dual tariff' scheme for NI only. /11

This is where @denisstaunton lands up for Irish Times... but it is not straight forward, even if it would seem to fit the 'spirit' of the Good Friday Agreement by allowing both sides to live in parallel realities effectively. /12

irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/…

@denisstaunton I did some thoughts on the issues here, which @RaoulRuparel acknowledged as sound/real...but not with standing not insurmountable. See @SamuelMarcLowe
threads for more. /13

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181839…

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe The obvious issues are

a) leakage over border for products that had rebate

b) unfair competition where NI biz gets 'subsidy' against ROI competitors. /14

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe Also, per UK proposal, at the moment the UK says, for E-W broder it wont use EU processes, but hasn't yet stood up workable/compliant alternative...that needs to be addressed too. /15

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe But COULD the EU accept leakage/impurity as the price of a deal IF it was confined to Northern Ireland (1.8m people) and so limited. That in turns depends on GB-NI border functioning. /16

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe Well, EU dips from major member states are not totally prescriptive on this. The Ruparel piece was not laughed out of bed. One senior EU dip said to me that "there are two 'pure solutions', we know, but neither work. The question is how much impurity we can live with'. /17

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe So maybe it is doable - but all that is caveated by fact that EU absolutely HATED this scheme before (but was presented for all-UK) and the Commission/institutions may well be harder over than the Member States. /18

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe The last thing is timing. @LeoVaradkar seemed to be talking about a very quick deal (for next week) which points to something pretty of the shelf....which makes me doubt NCP-NI ideas above...but maybe it can be inserted into WA and agreed? /19

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe @LeoVaradkar So that would be a legally binding commitment, but you'd still need some kind of fall back if it all went' pear-shaped or wasn't ready by transition end in 2020. And the more UK diverged, better the systems would need to be. /20

@denisstaunton @RaoulRuparel @SamuelMarcLowe @LeoVaradkar So that's it - lots of uncertainty, but clearly - for the first time in the Johnson tenure - a sense that there is something to serously talk about. We'll see. If it goes belly-up, both sides can go back to blamegame/elction strategies I suppose. Hope not. ENDS