🔔New: UK this weekend presented a customs plan to EU that keeps NI in the UK's customs area and will involve tracking all goods entering NI. Differential customs treatment is applied on goods from 3rd countries depending on final destination (into SM or not)
The idea sticks to UK red lines on NI not leaving UK customs territory. All entering goods initially have EU and UK status. But Barnier warned that without concrete details about how to make this plan legally operable, the EU is opening itself up to mass fraud in single market.
EU's main problems are about near impossibility of tracking final destination of goods given complexity of modern supply chains. Barnier gave example of sugar imports into NI from a 3rd country (via UK) which then end up in soft drinks that eventually enter Ireland and the SM.
UK answering q's will be thrust of negotiations on Mon. But in grand scheme, a complex dual customs system is unlikely to be nailed down by Weds. It needs weeks, even months. To seal a deal next week, Barnier is pushing the NI-only backstop as per Feb 2018 (UK has ruled it out)
Next key day is Weds - eve of summit - when EU27 ambassadors are briefed on outcome of talks and gear up for what kind of extension UK might need at the summit. A short technical one would help get any final text over ratification line. But if still big gaps, longer is needed
On other outstanding issues, UK has dropped demand for 4-year rolling consent for Stormont but negotiators haven't worked out what kind of NI approval both sides can live with. Ambassadors have also questioned what mandate Barnier has to agree any kind of consent mechanism
Brits also demanding the political declaration on future relations removes references to "robust level playing field" as agreed by Theresa May. EU has said the scope of any future trade deal will be limited without this
To sum up: sounds like we are heading to a Brexit extension, come what may.
