I’m not sure this will change many minds, but if I was an MP today I’d vote for the deal. Here’s why. (Personal view only.)
I voted Remain. But once people voted for Leave, it became clear to me that Brexit had to happen - and it had to actually be Brexit, rather than just a bad photocopy of EU membership.
That’s why I didn’t think Britain should stay in the single market - because it was incompatible with the money/borders/laws agenda.
And if you’re not staying in the single market, staying in the customs union was, in the immortal words of @K_Niemietz, like throwing away the burger and eating the napkin.
The new deal isn’t perfect. I get why the DUP are unhappy. But in crucial respects, it improves on May’s deal. There is a consent mechanism for Northern Ireland. Britain is not left as a rule-taker across swathes of its economy. We can set our own rules and sign our own FTAs.
Yes, Britain has had to compromise - not least because of the unique situation in Northern Ireland. But so has the EU. We need to see how things will work in practice, but this feels as sensitive a solution as was available.
More broadly, maybe we could have got a different deal if we’d made different decisions starting from June 2016. But we didn’t. This is a deal many people said was impossible to get, for all manner of reasons - or that Boris didn’t even want to get. They were wrong.
Some will say this isn’t Brexit. But it’s striking that even Leave.EU say that while this isn’t perfect, it is Brexit and they can live with it - as do a solid majority of the Tory 21.
In other words, this deal has attracted about as wide a range of support as anything can in this environment.
It also strikes me that many of the objections to the deal are misguided. There is fairly obviously no sinister Tory plan to strip away workers’ rights, for the simple reason that Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings quite like winning elections.
It’s just that it will now be for Britain rather than the EU to decide on these issues, or to negotiate on them as part of the FTA discussions.
Likewise, the idea that we are now bound for the hardest of Brexits - no, we’re not. The new Withdrawal Agreement actually allows a much wider spectrum of possible Brexit deals, ranging from Canada minus all the way back up to very tight integration.
Hence why the long-range economic forecasts seem premature, especially since they don’t give much credit to what else the Government might (be able to) do.
Admittedly, if Boris wins an election, we’re likely to be closer to FTA than rule-taking. But that’s democracy.
As for the argument that this won’t ‘Get Brexit Done’ - of course it won’t. But I’d rather have an argument, even a truly vicious one, about where we should end up on the spectrum of FTA options than endure the utter toxicity of a second referendum campaign.
Or remain in the current environment in which opinion is polarised between Revoke and No Deal.
Politically, it’s also hugely in Labour’s interests if not to vote for the deal, then at least to let enough of its members see it pass.
An election largely on domestic issues - even with Mr Popularity as Labour leader - is surely infinitely preferable for them to one in which Boris is able to run with a large chunk of the Leave vote behind him, while reassuring Remain voters that there won’t be No Deal...
...and castigating the other parties for having done their level best to thwart the will of the people.
This is especially the case if the Lib Dems mop up the Revoke crowd, and Labour are still promising to, um, negotiate a better deal of their own then hold a referendum in which they’ll campaign against it.
But ultimately for me, this isn’t about politics, but trust. The public voted for Brexit. This deal gives it to them, as best as anything can in this environment - while assuaging the worst fears of many on the Remain side. It deserves to go through.
(And now I'll be switching off my Mentions to watch the rugby...)
