As Shabbat ends in Israel, every single Likud and coalition politician is embarking on a coordinated offensive of incitement against Israeli Arabs and their political representatives. Netanyahu is scared shitless they're about to support a narrow Gantz government. This is Mayday!
At this point it's pretty clear that the majority of the Joint List (minus the Balad MKs) will support a Gantz minority government from outside the coalition. And more right-wing among the B&W MKs who weren't happy about this will swallow it. The big question remains Lieberman.
Lieberman only 3 days ago called the Joint List "a 5th column", "irrelevant" and "trying to destroy the country from within" but didn't rule out joining a government they support from without (or supporting it himself from without). So how likely is the scenario terrifying Bibi?
Until this evening, I’d have said the chances of a narrow or minority Gantz government supported by both Lieberman and part of the Joint List are slim. There are simply too many moving parts and contradictions in such a government. But now, Netanyahu is making it more likely.
Netanyahu has put everything on his incitement campaign against Israeli Arabs/Joint List. He hasn’t given Gantz and Lieberman any inducement to join a government, with the exception of a very vague agreement to suspend himself when he goes on trial. That’s a big tactical mistake.
Netanyahu’s clinging to his minority bloc together with the ultra-Orthodox parties and won’t give up on remaining PM in a national-unity government. Gantz & Lieberman have no reason to join him and he’s already trying to taint them as cooperating with the Israeli Arab politicians
Gantz and Lieberman know Netanyahu is trying to set up a 3rd election which will enable him to remain caretaker PM for at least another 5 months and that he will frame the campaign around their being treacherous Arab-lovers. They have little to lost at this point by backing down.
All that said, a center-left government supported by both some of the Joint List MKs and by Lieberman’s lot is still an extremely tall order. Every vote will be crucial and some of the MKs who are currently being counted upon will have second thoughts. So the chances now 50-50.
Netanyahu now releases a frantic video haranguing the ex-general leading B&W. “How can you have a government where you won’t be able to launch military operations without first asking those who wanted to brand you as war criminals? Have you taken departure of your senses?” 
Netanyahu is panicked because he knows that he can rely only on 55 votes against a Gantz government. So it’s not up to him. But Gantz needs 56 votes which assuming Balad (3) abstains, and the rest of Joint List (10) votes in favor, Lieberman with 8 holds the key. What will he do?
We’ve got 4 days left to see if the Israeli-Arab MKs can cooperate tacitly with Lieberman on replacing Netanyahu. It they do, it will be the greatest irony, as Lieberman has been inciting against Israeli-Arabs for far longer than Netanyahu has.
