Thread by @ejmalrai

Netanyahu can do that only until US withdraws (not sure Russia would wait to respond until the full withdrawal). #Israel is weaker than ever: Arab relshp doesn't equal power.

#Syria will not abandon #Iran & #Hezbollah won't abandon the Palestinian cause.

https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1077950270909358080

There is no doubt #Israel was afraid of the Syrian air defence system, hiding behind two civilian aircraft and endangering the lives of hundreds of civilians, for fear of the new air-defence system delivered by #Russia to #Syria./+

Syria didn't have so many anti-air defence system before the war or even until 2017. It is thanks to #Israel continuous violation of the Syrian airspace and the anger of #Russia that a certain balance has been created, to the benefit of #Syria./+

#Iran used to export its long & medium range precision missiles to #Syria. #Israel bombed many convoys & destroyed warehouses, pushing #Tehran to manufacture most advanced long-range missiles in the Levant. Today these missiles r filling up all warehouses in Syria (& #Lebanon)./+

#Syria responded last night by sending missiles to explode above occupied Palestinian tows and territory. #Israel closed the airspace and stopped the bombing for fear of more retaliation. That is a new ROE./+

It is obvious this time #Russia was not informed. Its reaction shows that #Israel is weak, hiding behind civilian aircraft, coming and firing from above #Lebanon hoping that #Russia would see the civilian planes and refrain from firing (Russian in control of air defence radars)/+

If 14 out of 16 missiles were intercepted, it means #Israel/i intel info was correct but the mission is a failure because the missiles didn't reach their objectives.

As one of my sources told me: if Israel has managed to intercept every convoy, why then #Hezbollah has 150k?/+

Israeli attack seems more directed toward @netanyahu election. A rule of thumb: just before the election, an attack is expected against #Palestinians or #Hezbollah or #Syria

Nasrallah promised to respond, therefore Netanyahu won't dare to attack #Lebanon for fear of consequences