Interesting analysis about the elections. "There was no real groundswell of support for Boris Johnson [and Tories]. They improved their share of the vote by less than 2% overall, losing over a million Remainers but gaining more Leave voters. " 1/ dataprax.is/tory-landslide…
The Tories did well by taking votes from the Brexit party. So that means that Farage (i.e. a right-wing xenophobe and fraudster who shorted the market on the EU Ref) was the kingmaker 2/
"Around a quarter of its Leave-supporting voters in the old heartlands -the so-called “Red Wall” - transferred their vote to the Conservatives" 3/
And this is a shock: "But crucially, a larger number of Labour’s 2017 voters seem to have switched to other Remain parties." Including Lib Dems and Greens. 4/
"Both of these switcher groups had very negative opinions of Jeremy Corbyn." 😭 . 5/
" the “unilateral pact” through which the Brexit Party stood down in every seat held by the Conservatives, and the "astroturf” Facebook campaigns which flanked and reinforced the official Conservative effort, were much more successful than equivalent efforts by progressives." 6/
"The unions punched well below their weight, hamstrung by the failure of Labour headquarters to share its strategic analysis or data." 7/
"around 78% of voters for non-frontrunner progressive parties in each seat would have had to vote tactically instead to block
a Conservative majority. This bar is so high as to be unrealistic." 8/
a Conservative majority. This bar is so high as to be unrealistic." 8/
"The Conservatives’ landslide victory will hold for five years. But it is fragile." 9/
"there remains a grave risk that the UK will become ever more
deeply riven by the culture wars we see spreading globally, from the US to Austria, from Israel to India and from Brazil to Poland. Everywhere we look, progressives are splitting and conservatives uniting." 10/
deeply riven by the culture wars we see spreading globally, from the US to Austria, from Israel to India and from Brazil to Poland. Everywhere we look, progressives are splitting and conservatives uniting." 10/
"almost 3 million people [ppl who voted in 2017 but not in 2019], some of them 2015 UKIP voters and some people who typically do not vote in general elections, arguably played a much more significant role in the Conservatives’ success than any shift amongst Labour Leavers." 11/
"The Liberal Democrats increased their share of the vote in every region in the country, even in Scotland, despite the loss of Jo Swinson’s seat. Our research suggests that much of their surge came at Labour’s expense." 12/
"The biggest swings from Labour to Conservative in this election were in Leicester East, Bassetlaw, Redcar, Rhondda, Mansfield, Dudley North. Not all of these seats changed hands." 13/
The specific cases are fascinating and goes to show that a) the media campaign against Corbyn and Labour party was effective; and b) Labour's messaging about its redistributive programmes needs to be more lucid. 14/14
