Thread by @alemannoEU

What to expect for Europe in 2020? As the EU enters a new policy cycle, here’s to a few predictions that I’ve shared with @euronews #THREAD 1/9

The new EU political leadership overpromised by generating outsized expectations that might reveal too difficult to manage:

1. Defend EU interests vs US & China 2. Take the lead on climate change 3. Tackle rebellious EU illiberal democracies 4. Tame big tech 5. Overcome Brexit

1. The #Suleimani assassination is already putting to test the self-proclaimed first EU ‘geopolitical’ Commission, which has lost in few hours the major EU foreign policy legacy of @JunckerEU @FedericaMog : the nuclear deal #JCPOA | the EU will be bystander of #iran situation

2. The EU has oversold its new #GreenDeal, with the unintended consequence of subjecting its acceptance to high demand by Poland & other green discontents across other contentious policy areas 7-year budget as well as redline issues such #RuleOfLaw | expect bumpy green road 4/9

3. On rule of law, the @vonderleyen Commission is ‘politically captured’ by very same political leaders it should hold accountable: both HU & PL ruling parties were instrumental in #vdl confirmation. New Commissioners too shy and cautious on #RuleOfLaw | major battle line 5/9

4. On big tech, EU set to confine itself to become global regulator leader while China and US strengthen their market dominance on AI & co. No: it won’t be yet another regulatory regime to give the EU ‘digital sovereignity’ it aspires for 6/9

5. 2020 will see an acceleration of #Brexit process through difficult implementation of unprecedented #WA and rocky renegotiation of UK-EU future relation. Expect the EU-27 to no longer speak with one voice and being more exposed than ever to UK demand #bojo 7/9

The imminent Conference on the Future of Europe will further raise expectations, in particular vis-à-vis EU citizens, but reveal incapable (by design) to deliver. High risk of top-down experiment masked as bottom-up, participatory moment aligned to Zeitgeist. Achtung! 8/9

To sum up: as Europeanisation of our societies & economies will persist, our domestic political systems will continue to pretend to be on the driving-seat of our shared future, but reveal instead their inherent inadequacy to actual challenges. Europe needs its own politics! 9/9

Full interview on @euronews with @elena_cavallone #stateoftheunion euronews.com/2020/01/03/eur… #europe #futureofeurope