Thread by @canokar

Even after recent price increases, Istanbul travel is still much cheaper than European standards.

The problem Turkey has is that 1) it doesn't sufficiently subsidise travel and 2) fuel costs are broadly the same across the world.

Neither of these is the fault of İmamoğlu.

Let me just illustrate that second point first. Fuel is cheaper in Turkey but not by much, certainly by nowhere near the factor by which transport is cheaper.

That's because Turkey is an energy importer. So a large proportion of transport costs are just burgeoning.

Just to give you a sense of how much a driver of transport costs fuel can be, here's the expenditure breakdown of Indian transport. Yes, Turkey's labour costs will be higher than this but still lower than in Europe.

Fuel costs (which you can see on the right hand side) are over 50% of your operational expenditure. And don't forget that Turkey's cap costs won't be prettier given we import almost all vehicles and parts (and have high finance costs).

So what exactly is İmamoğlu supposed to do?

"He should subsidise transport, we're too poor for transport that expensive" is something I read regularly.

I'm sorry but with what money? His budget is being squeezed left right and centre by the central government. If he runs a deficit, he risks the dreaded kayyum.

If he stops paying for fuel or labour, the buses will just not run. Without a shadow of a doubt, no-one will step in and fix that cash flow. If İBB has a liquidity problem, the buses will just stop and one of the largest metropolises in the world will cease operating. Overnight.

Istanbul still has relatively cheap transport given the highest cost of operating services is basically linked to foreign exchange and that means it's ridiculously expensive by Turkish wage standards.

But that is a national problem so blaming İmamoğlu strikes me as senseless.

Two things to note:

1) The "öğrenci" fare is ridiculously low and we should celebrate that. 50 TL per month is nothing.

2) There really should be an annual ticket that is very cheap and payable in parts. That is where European travel becomes affordable and we're missing that.

But returning to the main point: if you have a problem with the travel cost relative to wages, you have a problem with Turkey's economy, not İmamoğlu.

The costs of transport are almost entirely driven by USD or EUR so it's amazing that it's even this low.