Thread by @JoostHiltermann

1/In #Idlib recently, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani spoke with @CrisisGroup about how his group, Hei'at Tahrir al-Sham #HTS, is adjusting to the changing realities on the ground in the face of a #Syrian regime offensive and an intensifying humanitarian crisis. bit.ly/39Q22Ln

2/Jolani claims that #HTS has forsworn transnational jihadist ambitions and is readying itself to focus on governing territory under its control. And he told @CrisisGroup: "We are under no illusion that we can govern Idlib on our own."

3/If #Putin and #Erdogan want to preserve the Turco-Russian relationship, they will have to find an accommodation over #Idlib. In such a scenario, Ankara and Moscow would have to find a solution to the HTS question.

4/In our view, while Jolani’s rhetoric attempts to create the impression that #HTS has had a genuine change of heart re: its objectives and behavior, it would need to take far more concrete steps to demonstrate the sincerity of this reorientation, particularly to external actors.

5/#Russia, but also Western states, should determine whether #HTS is demonstrating good-faith efforts to contain foreign and transnationally oriented jihadists beyond just ISIS, and is allowing political pluralism in #Idlib.

6/We argue that a campaign to uproot and defeat #HTS in its final redoubt will almost certainly lead to a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented proportions, and that any avenue, however narrow, for preventing such an outcome should be explored. END/ bit.ly/39Q22Ln