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On #Russia / #Turkey :
Shell game between Putin/Erdogan. Trump will not side w/ Turkey against Russia. Erdogan will claim being abandoned by West/NATO. Justification for exit. Expect "de-escalation" followed by Erdogan claim "see the West is not Turkey's friend." The play?👇
Two strategic levels in play.

1. At a lower level, just like Iran's hand in Syria was weakened after Soleimani strike, Russia is consolidating in Syria, forcing another junior partner (Turkey) out, after it played its hand against US/allies (Kurds).

2. More importantly 👇
2. Russia, through this shell game (and partially alongside a willing Erdogan), now puts pressure on Europe, NATO, and US (not Trump, but US strategic interests, as he will never truly act against Russian interests, his one consistent line of action/thought).

#StrategicDeception
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#Russia #Turkey #StrategicDeception

More from @DraculaHadGout see all

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Germán de la Roche
@DraculaHadGout
#ActiveMeasures by Russian intelligence services are the tactical/operational component of Strategic Deception.

What is Strategic Deception?

It is not only deceiving an adversary at strategic level, but fundamentally altering how the adversary sees/thinks/acts.
#TrumpRussia
cc: @20committee @alexzfinley
The #counterintelligence challenge lies in not just the identification of penetrations, breaches, operations, and preventing/stopping them, but in understanding their purpose, manipulating them (not thru traditional law enforcement), and turning them back on the adversary.
Read 9 tweets

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Maxim A. Suchkov
@MSuchkov_ALM
Short THREAD on my take on #Russia's [in]action to #Turkey's onslaught on #Syria/n army within last 48 hours
[Caveat - this is just my specualtion based on how I read RUS foreign policy, #Putin-#Erdogan relations, and I may be totally wrong]
1. Following killing of TUR servicemen, #Putin, #Erodgan had phone talk where #Turkey's president asked #Russia/n counterpart to "to stand aside in #Syria" and "do what is necessary”, i.e. let Turkey fight Syrian government forces alone"
reuters.com/article/us-syr…
2. In this piece for @AlMonitor I discuss the kind of debates in #Moscow over the crisis with #Turkey and what's at stake for #Russia in #Idlib (and, actually, beyond that). No doubt #Kremlin considers all of this when chosing options on #Syria
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
Read 8 tweets
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Paula Chertok🗽
@PaulaChertok
#Russia is about to carve up #Syria. Watch an almost giddy #Putin welcome #Erdogan to Moscow today. He does that hand hug thing, putting his other hand on their very warm handshake, and says what I think is “you bring good weather.” They chuckle.
What a difference a few days make when America is compromised by a corrupt & incompetent dictator wannabe POTUS. Compare Putin-Erdogan handshake in Russia to Pence-Erdogan handshake in Turkey. It's hard to even grasp what hell Trump has unleashed on the Kurds, Syria, & the world.
😨“Operation Peace Spring”—How perfectly Orwellian🙃propaganda-speak. That’s what #Erdogan has codenamed #Turkey’s offensive in #Syria, which has slaughtered and displaced the Kurds & democratic SDF forces, with clear echoes of ethnic cleansing and war crimes. #Russia #Putin
Read 4 tweets
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
46. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
42. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria
#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
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Paula Chertok🗽
@PaulaChertok
🚨Pentagon defunds European projects that deter #Russia to fund Trump’s wall, authority DoD gained when Trump declared the border a national emergency - The Washington Post washingtonpost.com/world/national…
#Maddow says #Trump has moved to systemically dismantle each of the 4 pillars of USG response punishing #Russia for its invasion & annexation of #Crimea:
1) #Sanctions
2) Aid to #Ukraine
3) Ousting Russia from #G8
4) European #Deterrence Initiative
EDI was defunded for the Wall
🔥Garamendi on diverting military funds for a border wall: WHAT IN THE HELL IS GOING ON BETWEEN PUTIN & TRUMP?! Cutting projects critical to secure NATO's eastern border in Estonia, Poland & Ukraine gives Putin a lot of leeway, tells allies US is unwilling to stand up to Russia.
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Hanson
@Uncle_Jimbo
.@realDonaldTrump must consider how to respond to the latest chemical weapons attack in #Syria

It must be devastating as both #Assad and #Putin have now acted as if US warnings mean nothing

theatlantic.com/international/…
The meeting in Turkey between #Putin, #Erdogan & #Rouhani was a bad thing

They were planning how to carve up #Syria among other things
I think they read too much into the #Trump statement about leaving Syria

He didn't say "So do whatever you want"
In fact if they wanted to make sure we wouldn't leave soon
Or leave the field to them
A chemical attack was about the best way to do that

It seems way too much like a test of @realDonaldTrump & @AmbJohnBolton
That's unwise
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