Thread by @stevemagness

The Coronavirus- Don't panic but be prepared.

A few thoughts:
The chart is why we need to be proactive. Flatten the curve. Spread out cases so that Hospitals and infrastructure don't get overwhelmed.

If the spread is too quick, we don't have the beds/supplies to handle it

So why are events being canceled? Because if this thing gets to be community spread, the risks go up significantly. Yes, young people might be alright, but then they act as carriers, especially if symptoms are mild and they don't get tested (or there aren't enough tests).

They then spread it wider, and vulnerable populations get it, and deaths increase. It's not just the old, but the immune-compromised as well. The wider it spreads, the more it infiltrates these populations.

A few other notes:
We aren't testing enough people to know the actual spread and death rate in the US. Bad data in means bad data out.

Which is why it's important to ramp up testing quickly! Without data, you don't know where it's spreading, or where resources are needed.

So don't panic...but as the testing kits actually get out there (as of Friday, data suggests we've only tested a few thousand people...), the number of confirmed cases is going to skyrocket.

If you see a country or state with no cases. It's frankly because they aren't testing. Not because they don't have it.

It's counter intuitive, but the countries with more cases are going to look like they are doing a poor job because "look they have a lot of cases!"

But the reality is, they have a lot of cases because they are doing their due diligence to test a lot of people! Which in the long run helps minimize the outbreak. You can quarantine people quicker, not overload the hospital systems, etc.

Addressing: "The Flu is worse!"

Based on China data from WHO for the young, the death rate is 0.1-0.2% which is slightly higher than the flu. But the death rate for older or immune-compromised was around 4% for 60+, 8% for 70+yr olds, 14% for those over 80.

Contrasting that, the Flu death rate (which we have better data on obviously) is around 0.01% for the young and up to 0.8% for older populations.

As you can see, an order of magnitude less than COVID-19

The other issue is that, like most viruses, there are a few different mutations. Some cause mild symptoms. Others, major. For example, based on the china data, about 5-15% of those who got in China they either needed a respirator or to be on supplemental rich oxygen.

Most importantly: You can't compare it to the Flu. Of course, the Flu kills more people. It's highly contagious and yearly. We know how to test for it, track, and measure it. It's a known quantity. BUT, remember we also have Vaccines and treatments that are effective for the Flu

We have NONE of that with COVID-19. Vaccines are at least a year and a half away. We have no treatments. We have no data on long term effects or damage to the lungs. We have zero of that.

That doesn't mean panic, but it means when you compare it to the flu you are making a fundamental mistake. You are anchoring to something known. Without understanding if the comparison is actually valid, because we have so little data and understanding of the new virus.

The problem with COVID-19 is the unknowns.

And if it spreads, and then becomes a yearly virus, like the flu, the longterm deaths/repercussions are pretty large. So why not try to minimize spread now.

That's why we need to embrace reality. That doesn't mean panic. But that also doesn't mean downplay it or ignore figures and the science. Reality means for the next few weeks at least, the virus will spread, the number of cases will skyrocket, life will be disrupted.

Another chart from the WHO that shows the typical pattern of response.

Disclaimer...I'm a sports scientist/coach. All of the above comes from reading CDC/WHO reports and a few research studies.

Trust medical experts, not me or politicians. Be informed: who.int/docs/default-s…

One final thought RE: Panic.

Panic increases when we don't embrace reality.

When we have unrealistic expectations. So if the government downplays and misconstrues the data and information, it ultimately incites panic. Why?

If you expect it's a big nothing, then when deaths and cases rapidly climb, people at first rationalize, then ultimately accept and panic because it exceeds their mental model.

Panic decreases when expectations and reality line up.

That's why blind reassurance and hiding the problem might soothe people (and the markets) in the short term, but backfire over the long haul once things get worse

The same holds true for lying to people (i.e. "Anyone can be tested!" when we've tested 5k people total in the US)

So what? Embrace reality.

Understand that this thing will spread, and documented cases will skyrocket over the next few weeks. Play the long game, not the short reactive game.