Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Per the graph by the NYT the actual new cases since March 10th have declined with Tuesday being the highest with less reported each day since Tuesday.

Tracking Every Coronavirus Case in the U.S.: Full Map nyti.ms/39jvJEY

"Among the people in the United States who have died from coronavirus, almost all have been in their 70s, 80s or 90s. The youngest known fatality was a man in his 40s."

Why the travel ban? Even the NYT explains it:

"Though more and more unexplained cases have been identified, dozens of people with coronavirus in the United States recently spent time in a country with an outbreak."

"A Nebraskan who traveled in the United Kingdom was hospitalized several days after returning home.The first case in Oklahoma, announced Friday, was linked to a trip to Italy. "

"And in Colorado, a patient who had spent time in Italy apparently contracted the virus after being exposed to a person with the virus on his flight back to the United States."

"Combined, California and Washington account for more than a third of the nation’s coronavirus cases. Those patients include a mix of people who contracted the illness locally, traveled in China or were passengers on two cruise ships where outbreaks emerged."

HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTEDCASES
Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y.113
Personal contact in U.S.90
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash.57
Travel overseas48
Diamond Princess cruise ship43
Travel in Egypt41
Travel in Italy33
Travel within the U.S.33

Business conference in Boston29
Grand Princess cruise in February21
Grand Princess cruise in March21
Travel in China15
Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C.4
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif.3
Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.3

Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash.3
Travel in Iran2
Travel in South Korea1
Unknown935

from that's easy to see that one major vector for the virus is international travel. It's not the only vector but it's a major one. Issuing a travel ban will remove that vector.

Where are all the cases? Well, if you listen to the media they are all over the place but while there are a couple scattered around the country the most (2/3rds) are centered so far in just 4 states. WA, CA, NY and MA and within those states its mostly center in 4 small areas.

Okay lets try that again

State Cases Deaths
Wa 377 30
NY 32 80
CA 207 4
MA 108 0
CO 45 0
TX 34 0
GA 31 1
FL 30 2
NJ 29 1
IL 25 0
NE 23 0
PA 22 0
OR 20 0
VA 17 0
NC 14 0
IA 14 0
LA 14 0
MD 13 0
IN 13 0
SC 12 0
NV 10 0
DC 10 0
AZ 9 0
TN 9 0
MN 9 0
KY 8 0

State Cases Deaths
SD 8 1
WI 6 0
NH 6 0
Conn 6 0
AR 6 0
RI 5 0
OH 5 0
NM 5 0
OK 4 0
KS 4 0
DE 4 0
UT 3 0
HI 2 0
VT 2 0
MI 2 0
MO 1 0
MS 1 0
ND 1 0
WY 1 0
ME 1 0

There is a good chance that some of these smaller clusters will grow as well as a good chance some will peter out.

NY should be 328 cases and zero deaths. not 32 and 80.

per NYT

"The number of patients treated in the United States remains a small fraction of those with the virus overseas, where thousands of people have died and tens of thousands have been infected."