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THE CORONA VIRUS 🦠 AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
(A long read)
Ground Zero - Wuhan City
#Wuhan is the capital of Hubei province and the largest city in Central China; the population of Wuhan is just over 10 million (2015). #Covid_19
#Wuhan is known as the heart of China’s economic geography and is a traditional inland transportation hub. Wuhan is also an important industrial, educational and research base. Until 1927, the three current city districts Hankou, Hanyang and Wuchang were separate town. #Covid_19
Wuhan serves as the political, economic, educational and cultural center of Hubei Province with Hanyang being the industrial district, Hankou the business and financial district and Wuchang being home to most of Wuhan’s universities and museums. #Covid_19
Wuhan is the largest water, land and air transportation hub in central China, making the city known as “the gateway to nine provinces”. Wuhan stands out as China’s geographical heart, ideally situated within 1,000 km of cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu
This 1,000km radius covers over 1 billion of China’s population and 90% of the total economy in China. Wuhan’s geographical location creates a unique transportation advantage, forms intersection of the Beijing-Hong Kong high speed railway and Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu passenger line
Wuhan Tianhe Internatonal Airport is the only integrated hub airport in Central China, currently managing 160 domestic connections and 31 international and inter-regional connections. The opening (2016) of 3rd airport terminal means annual passenger capacity will reach 35 million
Metro system consists of three lines with a total of 47 stations, a total operating length of 57km. Main city line network to be extended to 333km (309 stations by 2017). In the future, 66% of the Wuhan population will live within walking distance of 600m from a metro station
Wuhan is known as the “River City” as within the city the world’s third largest river, the Yangtze River and its largest tributary, the Han River, converge. Water makes up 25% of Wuhan’s urban territory, which is the highest percentage among major cities in China.
Wuhan boasts nearly 200 lakes, including the East Lake area of 33km. Wuhan is designated by the State Council as most important shipping center in the middle reaches of Yangtze River. (The Yangtze River is China’s longest river flowing for 1061km through the Hubei province.)
Wuhan is - and will be - the largest transportation hub in Central China, bridging both China’s east, west, north and south. Wuhan boasts the largest river-port in China and the largest airport of Central China.
Hubei is China’s hydropower base, boasts abundant water resources and its hydropower facilities are capable of generating 31,334 million KW of electricity. The Three Gorges Dam has a total installed capacity of generating 18.2 million KW (the world’s largest hydropower project.)
In industrial development, Wuhan focuses on the optoelectronic & information technology sectors, modern manufacturing, steel + new materials, food processing, textiles, bioengineering and new medicine, logistics, water, environmental technology and sustainable city development.
Wuhan, the epicenter of the pandemic, is a major center and engine of growth (industry) for China: home to auto factories, auto parts factories, other manufacturing, electronic manufacturing, and an integral transportation hub essential to China’s outflow of goods and services.
The Hanyang Iron factory, built in the 1890’s, was the first modern iron and steel complex in Asia. In this period Wuhan was known as ‘Da Wuhan’, translated as ‘great’ Wuhan. During the early 1900’s, Wuhan was considered the second most important city in China, after Shanghai.
In essence, Wuhan (Hubei Province’s) is essential to China because it is an important center of auto manufacturing, and a major logistics and transportation hub. Furthermore, the province is strong in the metallurgical industry, hydropower, shipbuilding and logistics.
Hubei takes the leading place in China in the R&D of optoelectronics and Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Hubei currently ranks 8th in China with a total GDP of EUR 419 billion. The annual GDP growth rate in 2015 was 8.9%, well above the national average GDP growth rate of 6.9%.
Hubei is central to the Made-In-China 2025 vision. As China accounts for 1/3 of growth in the global economy; a slowdown of its productive hubs will have (already has) significant implications for the world’s economy. How did #COVID_19 attempt a take down of the global economy?
Contagion - poor health and political decisions to curb spread. Bad Signals. Fear. Markets. Economic contractions. Monday, Black Out - March 12 stock wipe out is regarded as the worst wealth destruction of stock value (10% NY, 5% Europe) in one single day since 1987
This economic wipe out was worse than the dot com bubble or the GFC 2008. This resulted from fears of the spread of the coronavirus amid weak signals of measures to curb the pandemics spread by world leaders.
Cities are shutting down, (Italy, Germany, Spain, France) restricting movement and economic activity. Epidemiologists and experts have called for compulsory closure, and that 'social distancing', self-isolating at home and closing schools and universities mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/c…
A Demand Frenzy, A Supply Shock
As offices and factories close, so does many companies and their projected earnings. Companies cut down on projections (from revenue shortfalls) - and even loss of employment for many would not be unexpected. economic lull has severe consequences.
Uncharted waters.
As factories and workplaces shutter and many countries/cities restrict movements, new workplace innovation may rise, including experimental measures of online/cyber work or remote employment, leading to new and improved ways to sustain productivity.
As production plummet, the supply of products decline rapidly and the demand of critical household goods (and a shortage of it thereof) increases sharply. This combination will lead to hysterical purchases and hoarding, as well as price gouging (in unregulated markets).
As the pandemic persist and productivity wane, employment will falter, poverty will rise and wealth inequality will widen. A targeted (but complex to achieve) economic subsidy for low income earners/poor households during this time should be on the table.
Monetary measures including quantitative easing (for banks and extended to critical sectors like aviation, at-risk firms and industry with huge employment), interest rate cuts, and productivity stipends including income support/paid leave, are tools being used by some countries
...to counteract depressing wages coming from lost economic activity. How far this goes remains to be seen (definitely not sustainable for the long run)
For many countries in Africa especially, price volatility of extractive commodity will lead to poor demand in commodity sale, and poor or struggling economies solely reliant on extractive commodities will face a revenue challenge. #Covid_19
How they will avoid recession (and if this pandemic crises persists, or worse slump) will depend on the strength of their reserves and of course, the actions and decisions of the country’s central banks or political leaders.
For African and developing/emerging economies, a possible consequence is the outflux of skilled workforce - needed perhaps in areas of depleted skilled workforce (in Europe - Germany and Italy are to watch for). A country or continents brain drain will be another’s gain.
How countries eventually bounce back will depend on the strength, resilience and versatility of their economic sectors, percentage remnants of quality skilled workforce, and capital; all helping to regain and sustain lost productivity.
#Covid_19
A considerable adult (in Italy) and young population (South Korea and Italy) in many countries are dying off). For Germany, some 58 million people, up to 70% of the population, could be infected.
google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…
What is Nigeria’s response regarding the #Covid_19 pandemic?
So far, preventive measures have produced positive results - effective identification, testing and quarantine has stemmed an invasion so far. States have stepped up their game, taking lessons from our Ebola case
The proactive measures taken by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control is highly commendable. We owe them - and to the amazing health community - our eternal thanks for their vigilance and communications so far. #Covid_19
Preventing this pandemic is not only cost effective but the best measure to prevent chaos and disintegration of the society.
Are the measures we are taking enough? #Covid_19
Several African leaders are taking further proactive measures - banning entry into their states from countries with proven high contagious statistics, countries have addressing their citizens on radical preventive measures through different communication channels. #Covid_19
Fantastic that our airports do have recognizable thermal sensors for temperatures assessment but anyone with knowledge of antibiotics know that these can be taken to suppress and conceal these high fevers to ensure passage #Covid_19
With our porous borders, it is easy to circumvent the system, mingle and spread the infection. many states have taken measures but do not have identifiable structures to arrest any outbreak or invasion given the precarious states of our highly underfunded healthcare system.
As at today, we have no emergency warning diagnostic system across our many health centers which can easily give rapid identification of the symptoms of the illness; neither have we procured large scale rapid test kits across our local governments across country #Covid_19
More worrisome, what clear measures are we taking to protect our health personnel (the most at-risk of our skilled workforce at the moment)? Nigeria cannot afford to be complacent or rest on her oars.
With prevalent poverty and wide inequality, with high population and a weakened health system, a coronavirus invasion in Nigeria will have catastrophic implications for our continued well-being and the survival of the state. #Covid_19
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